Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Ebola comes to America; virus certain to spread

On August 3rd I predicted the first “original” case of Ebola in the US would occur before September.  I was off by a month.  We now have an Ebola victim in Dallas who was spreading his cheer among our population for over 20 days.

Our open borders and lack of sensible and effective profiling and testing at our airports will enable scores of other Ebola victims to enter our country in the coming weeks.

Just a couple of weeks ago, Ebola experts predicted “up to 25,000 cases” may occur.  A few days ago a new prediction was issued:

In a 23 September CDC report, a projection calculates a potential underreporting which is corrected by a factor of 2.5. With this correction factor, approximately 21,000 total cases are the estimate for the end of September 2014 in Liberia and Sierra Leone alone. The same report predicted that total cases, including unreported cases, could reach 1.4 million in Liberia and Sierra Leone by 20 January 2015 if no improvement in intervention or community behaviour occurred.[206]

Here is a revised timetable of how we can expect this disease to spread and the havoc it will cause over the next several months, even in the US:


Event trigger…

Possible reaction of governments

Possible reaction of population 

September 30 First US case -  in Dallas Additional warnings and guidelines will be issued. 

Assurances will be given that Ebola has no chance of spreading in the Dallas area.
Run on surgical masks, especially in greater Dallas area.
Mid October Several additional cases of Ebola will be identified in the greater Dallas area.

Additional African nations report outbreaks.

First US death reported.
Additional warnings and guidelines issued. 

Assurances will be given that Ebola has no chance of spreading in the US
Limitations of large scale gatherings in the Dallas area considered.  One or more schools affected.
November Additional confirmed cases in other US cities.

Several additional US deaths reported.

African cases reach 100,000 and deaths reach 50,000.
Supplemental screening at airports.  Governments consider travel restrictions in affected US cities Panic buying of food and other essentials in impacted areas.  Increased alarm throughout US.
December Spread through many more African nations. 

First cases in Europe reported.

Cases now reported in over a dozen US cities.
Travel bans to and from most of Africa – if not the entire continent.

US government invokes limited travel bans in areas of outbreaks.  Quarantine is established in several locations.  Hundreds of people feared to be infected are quarantined.
Civil unrest in many African nations; death toll increases exponentially; African commerce to other continents begins to be seriously  impacted
January See potential scenario HERE and HERE.   Many from infected countries cross our borders – see HERE. Flights greatly curtailed in the US to and from areas of infected population.  Calls for persons from infected nations to be quarantined. Segments of US population begin considering measures to take to shelter in place to minimize exposure
February Deaths reported in multiple states. Quarantines are extended to a number of cities in the US. Panic sets in among many.  Grocery stores in areas of outbreak are mobbed and depleted as whole communities discover they must shelter in place.
March-December Dramatic increase in number of cases reported.

Epidemic declared in the US.

Death toll in thousands and increasing exponentiallyd in US
Triage centers open.  Marshall law considered in some areas.  Number of quarantine centers increase. 

Restrictions on travel and deliveries begin to cripple commerce and our economy.

National emergency declared.  Detention centers open.  President and military given extraordinary powers.  Increased travel restrictions.

Marshall law established in many locations.   Travel is virtually suspended.
Panic increases.  Civil unrest in most affected areas.  Food shortages result from controls on commerce restricting travel and deliveries. 

See HERE about how civil unrest progresses.
Many people will self-quarantine to avoid other people.  Many will not report to work.

Commerce is crippled.  Civil unrest spreads.  Food shortages increase.  Desperation drives behaviors.

Societal breakdown begins.

While the above is admittedly wild speculation,  the potential is there for something along these lines to transpire.  An Ebola outbreak in the US is just one among many potential causes of societal breakdown and the need to anticipate likely consequences and prepare accordingly.  It just so happens we have this current event unfolding before our eyes at this moment.  Stay tuned…

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