Monday, February 24, 2020

My first encounter with TDS, and my advice

For the first time in my adult life I was blessed with an email from an individual who was suffering from TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome.)  Yup, my first encounter with such specimen.

His  initial triggers were his disagreement with my self-admittedly untrained predictions about the impacts of the Covid-19 virus, and his belief that I was a hypocrite.  But later in his email he revealed his underlying TDS that was the cause of his distress.

Here is the complete text of his email:

Since you are a self-admittedly untrained & not a medical professional, you should stop with the fear mongering! I bet you warned people that they should stockpile food and gold for Y2K too! 

You made a bunch of predictions indicating a high percentage of certainty about the coronavirus. If you are so certain, put your money where your mouth is!

I'll bet you $5,000 that your predictions do not come true. Not a joke, I'm making a serious and sincere offer.

Oh, but I forgot, your a Christian so you probably don't gamble. Yet you'll support a jackass like Trump who has been married three times, paid off porn stars, and who gleefully boast about "grabbing women by the @#$^".

If Obama (who I did not vote for by the way) had done these things you would have been apoplectic. But since Trump installs judges you like you give him a pass. Presumably you familiar with the word hypocrite?

I replied very late at night, so I was not on my very best “Christian” behavior:

Dear Bernie (not his real name)

If you consider what I have written [to be] "fear mongering", that demonstrates to me that you have been among the many individuals who have chosen to be uninformed or who just haven't been paying attention.

While I am not and have clearly stated I am not a medical professional, I have kept abreast of this topic.  I won't trouble you with noting the time I've spent and the many sources I've accessed.  Suffice to say I have obviously been paying more attention to these current events than you have.  I'm amused that someone as admittedly uninformed as I am could provoke you so badly.

You are correct, I am not a gambling man like you.  That is why I am paying attention to events and reaching reasonable conclusions.  Only a fool would offer a bet like you have made. Go ahead, stick your head further into the mire and roll your dice.

Instead of being fearful, it is better to be aware and prepared; my valuable "tip of the day." No charge.

Others who ignore reality may be good candidates to represent President Xi Jinping of China in being his mouthpiece in declaring everything is fine, nothing to see here, so they can snow the world into believing they are open for business when they clearly are not.  Have you considered applying?  You'd be excellent!

I hope you are right about "nothing to see here."  But reading your arrogant obliviousness, I really don't care if you remain oblivious and bear the consequences.

On your other chosen but unrelated sideline topic, you fail to understand human nature, or are just naturally unpleasant.  Everyone is a hypocrite to a degree.  And if you believe you are perfect, you probably don't know you are deceived to boot. 

I choose the lesser of evils.  No one is perfect. Regarding Trump, yours is my first email from a person suffering from "Trump Derangement Syndrome", (TDS), a condition where an individual exhibits rage against Trump-induced successes. See, I can BS my way through psychiatry, too!  Anyway, you make me feel so blessed (a Christian term) for finally having this growth experience.

At least Trump kept his promises, unlike so many politicians. "Promises made, promises kept" as we like to say. Perhaps you don't like the promises he kept.  Perhaps you prefer open borders, criminal illegal aliens, taxpayer funds used to subsidize illegals, higher taxes, higher unemployment, lower wages, out-sourcing US jobs (see where that gets us over the next few months with our sole-sourcing to China) more government regulations, socialism, and corrupt bureaucrat-controlled "deep state" government.

I voted for Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, a very moral man, and arguably one of the worst presidents in history.

Trump and everything he represents is miles ahead and preferred over any Democrat running.

You appear to have a lot of pent up resentment toward my blogs.  Take two pills, any pills, and don't call me in the morning.

So much for what I learned in my Dale Carnegie course.  However, I felt much better, had a good night’s sleep and look forward to blocking his future emails to me should he choose to reply.

Seriously, most people with whom I share my thoughts about the virus give me the distinct impression that they don’t know much about it and don’t really care.  This includes medical professionals.  I attribute this reaction to three things:  1) Our innate “normalcy” bias whereby the prospect of forced drastic change is uncomfortable and too hard to think about, so we don’t, 2) Preoccupation with their narrow profession, whether it be cardiology, sales, accounting, or anything else, along with their family responsibilities, and 3) Most media hasn’t paid much attention, preferring to focus on gossip column-type events and flinging innuendos about Trump, so we aren’t exposed to many things that may more significantly impact our lives than what happened in the network gossip columns.

The next 30-days will reveal how right or wrong I and others have been.  Stay tuned.

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Covid-19 (Novel Coronavirus): What to expect…

Official names: 2019-nCoV, aka SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19.  Informal names: Coronavirus (there were many forms of “coronavirus” prior to this strain); “Wuhan” virus, Chinese city of origin; novel coronavirus.

Yes, it is novel, it is new, it’s full of surprises.  There is a lot we don’t know about it.  There is a lot to learn.  Experts have been proven wrong, sometimes more wrong than “conspiracy theorists.”

Here is a list of what I know (which you should take with a grain of salt.)  So my “grain of salt” is in the form of my percentage (%%) degree of certainty behind each statement.

  • It spreads much faster than SARS, MERS, EBOLA, or Swine Flu .  See animated growth graphic HERE. (100%).
  • As of February 23, there were over 79,000 cases in 31 nations according to THIS SITE. (50%)  Most observers, including many experts believe this number of cases and spread are much higher. (100%)
  • Comparisons with seasonal flu the the US:  Bottom line, the mortality rate of Covid-19 is tens of times greater than the seasonal flu. This, coupled with predictions that 60% of the population will become infected, these facts become quite alarming.  (95%)
  • The mortality rate is reported to be around 2.5% (+/-0.5%) of confirmed cases. (90%) 
  • Mortality is markedly higher among people over the age of 50, especially over the age of 70 primarily due to co-morbidities, especially with pre-existing conditions of chronic bronchitis, asthma, COPD, diabetes, untreated hypertension, and various heart conditions.  With these conditions, mortality rates are >10%. (90%)
  • An infected individual without symptoms (asymptomatic) can spread the disease to others for over 24 days before he manifests symptoms. (90%).  The realization that asymptomatic carriers could transmit the disease only occurred last month.  It was only a week ago that this period of asymptomatic spread was thought to be limited to 14 days.  Consequently, quarantine was for a period of only 14 days for those who were suspected of coming in contact with a carrier.  That has been shown to be grossly inadequate. This is the primary reason for the rapid spread as shown in the graph linked in the first bullet point, above.  (90%)
  • Recidivism: There have been claims that this virus, unlike the common flu, can recur in an individual within a few weeks of apparent “cure.”  This would be a unique characteristic of this virus because the body’s immune system typically develops antibodies that create subsequent immunity.  The most likely reason is a mutation of the virus in the body that makes it different just enough so that the original antibodies do not effectively fight the new version. (50%)
  • Some fairly high proportion of tests for Covid-19 present false negatives.  That means additional infected people are released into the general population. (95+%)
  • Treatment of the virus:  Treatments have varied with different degrees of success dependent on timing of treatment and age and comorbidities of the patient.  Most often patients are given oxygen, and steroidal treatments.  Some are given anti-HIV treatments.  Antibiotics are often used to treat bacterial infections that are a common secondary effect of the virus.  It is noteworthy that China manufactures or has the primary ingredients for over 90% of all antibiotics produced in the world.  They also produce or have the primary ingredients for around 80% of all pharmaceuticals produced worldwide. (90%)
  • Warm weather cessation of the virus:  This is an unknown.  There are several nations in the vicinity of the equator that are experiencing outbreaks.  (50%)
  • Source of virus:  Initial official narratives claimed it originated in an exotic animal/food market in Wuhan, China.  Many “experts” stick by this claim.  However, there is increasing chatter, now also among some more mainstream media, that this virus has indeed escaped by as yet unknown means from the Level 4 bio lab located several hundred yards from the exotic animal food market.  The means of “escape” could have been via sale of tested animals from the lab to the market for quick profit as has been known to occur, or some other more insidious means. (70%)

For more information on the advance of this virus, Dr. John Campbell videos HERE give a reasoned approach.  Zero Hedge is a bit edgier and provides a broader perspective with more info on the ground HERE, and of coarse, the CDC which give the government perspective, HERE.

I’ll stop here for my untrained “medical” diagnoses. 

Now for my predictions based partly on the above disease characteristics, partly on the social propensities of the United States versus more highly regulated (dictatorial/Communist) societies like China, and partly on common sense.

  • When will this virus be declared a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO)?  Prior to March 1, 2020. (90%)
  • When will total confirmed US cases exceed 1,000?  This is tricky because the US does not possess many reliable test kits.  So not much testing can be done.  It is certain that there will be many more infected people in the US than will be reported.  More HERE.   Prior to March 7. (70%)
  • When will the cases in the US warrant the first city to be under quarantine?   Prior to March 15. (80%)
  • When will the first hospital in the US be reported to be overrun by virus patients due to lack of hospital capacity? Prior to March 15. (90%)
  • When will the outbreak be declared a “national emergency” in the US?  Before April 1, 2020.
  • How will people in the US react to quarantine?  In the larger cities, unlike as shown in China, there will be looting and riots, by April 1. (90%)  There will not be anywhere near the degree of compliance to quarantine in the US as there was in China.  US citizens are more likely to disobey and rebel in both non-violent and violent ways. (95%)
  • China and nations of southeast Asia whose production and exports will be reduced by 70+% through at least Spring, manufacture the bulk of pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.  Consequently there will be supply shortages of masks, other medical supplies and equipment, medical personnel, hospital beds, large varieties of consumer goods and components for other manufacturing in the US.  Such shortages will become widespread before April 1 in many areas of the nation.  (80%)
  • When will we first observe a large number of people in shopping areas wear a medical or N95 mask?  Prior to April 15. (80%)
  • When will a good part of the US population decide to “self-quarantine?”  Prior to May 1. (80%)
  • The US  (and world) economy will be hit hard.  Many predict a worse hit than the “Great Recession of 2008”. (90%)

Shop early.  And I hope I’m wrong.

Monday, February 17, 2020

Will this pandemic be a nail in the coffin of globalism?

I’ve listened to many folks who minimize the potential impact of COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus) by comparing it to the annual US flu.  They conclude that more die from the regular flu than the “mere 1,800” or so that died so far from COVID-19 – so why the worry.
Yes, it is true that more die annually from the annual flu in the US than from COVID-19, so far.
From Microsoft News:
Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.

However, let’s compare some vital facts:

Flu in the US kills around 0.1% of those who contract it.

For the most part, the “standard” flu infects others only after symptoms appear enabling timely self-quarantining.

On the other hand, COVID-19 is reported to kill 2.5% of those who contract it.  That is a mortality rate 25 times that of the standard flu in the US.  In the older than age 60 population, the COVID-19 death rate is much higher, beyond 10%.

Even more concerning is the fact that symptoms manifest themselves anywhere from two to 24 days after contracting the virus.  During this period, the virus is transmissible.  So people who show no symptoms can and do unknowingly transmit COVID-19 to others.

Add to this the fact that the current tests for COVID-19 frequently show a false negative meaning that even though the test is negative, the person tested is actually a carrier.
Now let’s pivot over to what is a significant “super spreader” of pandemics:  Globalism.
I introduce to you Laurie Garrett,  who, according to Wikipedia, is a noted

“…American science journalist and author. She was awarded the Pulitzer Prize for Explanatory Journalism in 1996 for a series of works published in Newsday, chronicling the Ebola virus outbreak in Zaire.[1]

She is interviewed in a current YouTube video, HERE, where she discusses various aspects of COVID-19.  The one plus hour video is factual and helpful up till five minutes before its conclusion where she reveals her strong globalism bias.

I am not the only one who was struck by her politics.  Here are two comments about her interview:

At around 1 hour 8 minutes - I can NOT believe she equated quarantine policies with racism.

Same here. I was actually enjoying her talk and then she went to the racism bullshit. The general population has been so brainwashed on this whole diversity bullcrap that all they see around them is the racism they've invented in their minds. This cancerous thinking can't die fast enough.

And I added the following observations:
Throughout her interview she described how air travel, international cruises, and an open, global society spread this particular virus.  But at the end she added that anti-globalization is going to be a big impediment to suppressing an outbreak.  Sounds like forked tongue, trying to have it both ways. Then she called those who are against globalization “racists.”

No, no, it's not racism. It's looking at facts. It's looking at who - what region, what nation - is the potential carrier based on the source of infection. Damn, she sounded really credible until the last few minutes of the interview. Then she sounded like every other socialist democrat, an anti-nationalist, a globalist, a fund the UNist, a one-worlder. The global spread of viruses is an effective justification for increased nationalism.

Heck, look at our medical supply chain. 90% of medical supplies, prescription medicines, latex gloves, protective suits, face masks, respirators; all made in one nation, China, the source of the outbreak. When a nation does not make its own essential supplies, whether medical or defense related, that nation is exceedingly and unnecessarily vulnerable and exposed.

Who does Laurie Garratt, this globalist expert, work for?  Low and behold, her employer is the Council on Foreign Relations, the foremost promoter of globalism on the planet.

In 2004 Garrett joined the Council on Foreign Relations as the Senior Fellow of the Global Health Program.  Wikipedia

Yes indeed.  The source of one’s income certainly does bias one’s politics – even to the extent of saying one thing during most of a one hour interview, and concluding with the opposite in the last five minutes.

In the bulk of her interview Garrett explained all the ways COVID-19 is spread through open borders, international flights, international cruise ships, and wide open international trade, and concludes that globalism is fantastic.
Sure, it is wonderful for medically advanced nations to assist those nations that are not as fortunate to help avoid or minimize the impacts of pandemic.  But that benevolence does not argue for globalism any more than desiring secure borders and promoting nationalism makes one a racist.

At this point it is more appropriate than ever to promote secure borders, to vet those who cross those borders not just for their political and cultural intentions and compatibility, but now more than ever, to determine what disease they are carrying across the border.  COVID-19 is not the first formerly “eradicated” disease to cross our border.  World Net Daily reports

Cramped conditions and the spread of difficult-to-treat diseases has doctors worried in the wake of a massive influx of children coming across the Mexican-U.S. border, many of them from Central and South America. Outbreaks of scabies, lice, dengue fever, tuberculosis and other diseases – many of them contagious – are already being documented among the children and in some border agents who work among them.

Whether they are legal or illegal border crossers, a 14-day minimum quarantine period is essential.

Call it “nationalism”; call it whatever.  Stronger borders, not “globalism” is the way to maintain not only a healthier nation, but a more prosperous and self-sufficient one.
Is this pandemic another nail in the coffin of globalism?  If it isn’t, it should be.

Sunday, February 02, 2020

Can ******-free Zones be Justified?

I am being very, very careful not to mention the name of any belief system, group of people, or individual so that I will not upset the sensitivities of snowflakes, leftists, adherents of ***** or Google censors.

So, back to the question I asked in a blog over five years ago that was recently deleted by Google as “hate speech”:  “Can ******-free Zones be Justified?”

I must have proclaimed a resounding “you betcha” in my earlier, Google-erased blog, because I guess that’s why they erased it.

Look what happened to our president when he asked the same thing in his attempt to reduce immigration from violence-prone nations that hate the US.  He was appropriately trying to make our entire nation a ******-free zone.  He got himself impeached.  I only got a blog post deleted.

Back to my very clear question:  “Can ******-free Zones be Justified?”

Again, you betcha.  Why?

If said ****** is a devout adherent to the ******* ideology, and given that the ******* ideology promotes violent supremacism and maintains a doctrinally pure and consistent hatred of the religions and values of western civilization, then yes, you betcha they have no place here.  Granted, not all ******* are deeply devoted to the pure doctrine of *****.  The trouble is, because of the deep deception practiced by adherents of *****, it is virtually impossible to know which ***** does or does not believe and practice the doctrines of *****.

So, having concluded without any shadow of doubt that ******-free zones are justified, how can we go about accomplishing this?  It is obvious that liberal judges who overturned our president’s attempts to at least minimize the invasion of our nation by a force of evil against it are clueless concerning ******* doctrine, history, and practice.  So, yes, we need judges who understand the seditious intents and purposes of ******* who devoutly practice *****.

Doesn’t a nation possess the right to admit only those non-citizens who at least don’t hate, if not love this country, to enter into it?  Don’t we have the right to identify nations dominated by people possessing hatred for and violence toward this nation and refuse their entry?

So, yes, ******-free zones are absolutely justified:  In your neighborhood, town, county, state and nation.  Diversity based on gross incompatibility with those who believe in and use violence to further their ends brings nothing but strife and demonstrably deadly consequences.