Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Random viral thoughts…

Here are some of my random thoughts in-between listening to the news, playing cards with my wife, and deciding if we want take out from the local Italian restaurant.  Here are a few:

Old people:  People over 60 are at greatest risk.  The entire strategy of our federal government is to protect the elderly population and those with medical vulnerabilities from getting the virus.  Those are the stated justifications for the ENTIRE population urged or required to quarantine.  It is the primary reason for closing down businesses, putting people out of work, crashing our economy, creating shortages of many essentials, and creating a great deal of angst.

So, what uncomfortably crossed my mind as an old person, is to what extent will millennials and younger harbor resentment toward the elderly and blame us for the hardships forced upon them.  Millennials and increasingly millennial-pandering media (due to seeking to bolster ad revenue) are already for the most part “anti-Trump”.  Are they also anti-aged?  We’ve already heard snarky comments from many, such as “let them die”, “why are they such a big deal?” and others.  Will there be a backlash reaction against the elderly?

Anti-Trump bias:  Continues.  “The View” can’t help criticize Trump for identifying China as the source of the virus.  Those thoughtless anti-American socialists prefer to defend China over their own president in time of crisis.  China itself identified “patient zero” coming from a wet market in Wuhan, smack in the middle of China, and several hundred yards from one of the few Level 4 Bio-containment facilities in ***China*** that has been known not to contain deadly viruses very well.

The spread of this virus is seen by most on the left as one more opportunity, after Russia-gate, Ukraine/memo-gate, and now Wuhan-gate, to slander our President.

Market shortages:  Yes, we are going to experience product shortages and likely rationing.  And I’m not just referring to hand sanitizer, facemasks, and toilet paper.  Two reasons:  Not just supply chain shortages from China, but there will be thousands in the US who are not going into work.  Either out of fear or just out of “an abundance of caution” many are calling in sick and staying home.  This has been impacting grocery warehouse product “picking” workers and hundreds of other employment categories we haven’t even begun thinking about, that will disrupt the “just in time” deliveries to our grocery, pharmacy and retail stores.

Businesses, unemployment and our economy: Restaurants are hardest hit.  Most states have ordered closings. Tens of thousands will be financially devastated around the country. Most other businesses that require drive-to shoppers will also suffer.  The unemployment rate will skyrocket.  The unemployed will rise to the millions – some predicted “worst case” at depression levels of 20%.  I believe that is a “likely case.”  The stock market fell to pre-Trump levels, foray falling below three years of gains.  The market was “limit down” several times, including 1:00pm today (Wednesday, March 18).  Unheard of Federal aid in the trillions to businesses and individuals is being promised.

Fort Lauderdale and other Florida Beaches: The “don’t offend the tourist” mentality of Florida beach communities has driven sanity from government leadership.  Fort Lauderdale, in Broward County, Florida, is a case in point.  Why does Broward County have the number one flu breakout in the state? Could it be the hoards of spring breakers at the beach that the locals don’t want to chase away and offend? Yes, welcome one and all, the beaches are open.  And that is the case in most beach communities in Florida.

Everyone will get it: It dawned on me yesterday that everyone will get this virus, eventually.  We either get it sooner or we get it later.  Sooner is within the next month.  Later is six months or a year from now. Everyone gets the current version of the flu.  About every other year the immunologists don’t get the vaccine for the exact strain of the day and those who didn’t get the flu last year get it this year.  The same applies to COVID-19 which is even more contagious and has more fatal consequences.

Positives, but not worth it: The “glass half full” people look at the bright side.  Less traffic, less crowded stores (at least the ones that remain open), and lower gas prices.  But the realists understand it isn’t worth it. The excitement of a new challenge and the polarized arguments of how to handle it will soon fade. Reality will dawn that this is a lasting, long term, year plus or longer set of hardships we are in.  It will not be fun. Expect civil unrest in areas harder hit and an uptick in the numbers of haters and other non-thinkers with little emotional control who will do all they can to disrupt and demean authority.

Monday, March 09, 2020

Public reaction to the virus: All over the place

Perception is reality to almost everyone. And perception varies widely concerning the source, the extent, and the seriousness of COVID-19.

Here are the four primary reactions I’ve gleaned from the “Comments” sections of a variety of news sites:

The deniers and obliviousRoughly a third of comments claim COVID-19 is over-hyped and really not worse than the common cold or seasonal flu. They generally pick the lowest end of the transmissivity and mortality rate estimates and apply these factors to their favorite predisposition:  Nothing to worry about. Or they ignore medical facts altogether and limit their understanding to their scant knowledge of events prior to the COVID-19 breakout.  They believe those who believe the virus is worse than they think it is have some sort of perverted agenda. Unfortunately, I have experienced local medical professionals (one a cardiologist; another a dental technician) who as recently as early February were in the category of “oblivious” when I asked them their thoughts about COVID-19.  “COVID-what?” was their response. One said I have a greater chance of being killed on a busy highway near my house than being killed by the virus. Sadly she failed to admit that I am in the cohort most likely to be seriously impacted by the virus. Frankly, I have never seen medical personnel in full protective gear treat seasonal flu victims like they are doing for COVID-19.  There must be a good reason for that.

The end-of-the-worlders: A quarter or so of the comments predict a near world-ending catastrophe.  They suggest that if you don’t think it’s bad now, just wait till it mutates into a hemorrhagic fever inducing virus.  They often equate COVID-19 to the 1918 Spanish Flu or Black Plague of the mid-1300’s.

The conspiracy theorists: These folks attribute some sort of world-wide evil manipulation of the genetic code to kill off the common man so the elite can progress in peace without the elderly and other low life riff raff. These conspiring ones might be in the form of the Bilderbergs, the CIA, MI6, George Soros, the Mossad, or even some form of extra-terrestrial.  Jews and bankers are often the target of blame.  Often these conspiracy theorists are anti-Semitic.

The realists: While not all medical professionals are thought to be “agenda free”, epidemiologists, virus researchers and many in the medical profession who maintained currency with the characteristics and status of the virus usually provide rational information. Their primary messaging is this:

  • The virus spreads more readily than the seasonal flu
  • It can be caught from an infected person that is asymptomatic, often for several days prior to manifestation of symptoms
  • It’s mortality rate is higher than that of the seasonal flu; most suggest 10 times greater
  • Inadequate testing has results in an artificially low number of reported infections among the population; many suggest multiply “official” count by 50 and assume some number in zero count locations.
  • When testing ramps up over the coming weeks, expect  more realistic numbers of infected to balloon exponentially in the US
  • These more realistic higher numbers of infected individuals will lower the reported mortality rate calculation
  • Elderly (over 60) and those with underlying illnesses such as high blood pressure, lung or heart-related illness, or diabetes are at the highest risk of mortality and should refrain from travel or visiting places with people in close proximity, I.e., closer than six feet.
  • The US has been behind the curve in its response with test kits and travel bans that were required early to minimize the outbreak
  • More stringent mandatory quarantine, isolation, and travel restrictions will be implemented in various neighborhoods, cities and regions of the US in coming weeks, albeit a bit late.
  • The anticipated large outbreak will overwhelm our medical system, especially those 5 to 10% of infected in need of respirators and other critical care.
  • Medical supply and equipment shortages will aggravate the situation.

One other characteristic of note in the comments sections of online news sites is those who promote the idea that the virus is not much worse than the common cold or flu tend to be Trump supporters.  Trump, early on, himself has made comments that follow this line. He has since become more realistic, listening more to his medical professionals.  Liberal network news has become more sensationalistic in reporting this story over the couple of weeks.  They have found the virus to be a convenient way to promote their agenda in favor of more liberal candidates and find additional opportunities to bash our President.

The gyrating stock market was initially a victim of only the virus until today. There has been legitimate concern about pending supply stream shortages from China’s >70% drop in exports to the US, especially parts and components required by our manufacturing sector.  But the 1,000+ point crash of the Dow on March 9th was due in equal part to the oil price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia.  The combination of the virus and 25% drop in the price of oil negatively impacts our oil shale industry created a double whammy impact on the financial markets all around. 

I cringed each time President Trump bragged how he brought the stock market to its high levels that peaked in early February, knowing there are forces greater than any president can muster that influence the markets.  I was reminded how Bush II lost his election due to an economy in peril.  If this declining economic trend continues beyond summer and there is no appreciable improvement in the markets by early fall, the Trump re-election may be in jeopardy. We might have Biden’s Vice President as President a few months into his term when his dementia can no longer be ignored.

Saturday, March 07, 2020

Is the Florida Health Department purposely being sloppy and incomplete with their reporting?

Below is the copied page from the Florida Health website, more specifically  THIS PAGE that discusses and provides current statistics concerning the COVID-19 virus in Florida.

I realize FloridaHealth.gov is dominated by health care professionals and not communicators.  I realize they are predisposed to believe that the rest of us lack the ability to understand data.  I realize they are busy with other priorities. And I realize they have an agenda to spoon feed data to minimize public concern.

However, the fact is, their information page on this virus is much less useful than it should be and provides little meaningful data that would otherwise allow the average person to understand the status of testing, the status of spread, the level of severity, and the true level of concern appropriate for the outbreak.

Examples:

It gives three categories of “Positive Cases”.  It does not inform that these “positive cases” constitute only a small fraction of those likely to have the disease, due to the shortage of tests available. Consequently the data given is virtually meaningless, actually very misleading, in understanding the spread of the virus.

Their data does not give any indication of the current condition nor the demographic (age, co-morbidities, location within the state) of those positive cases. This again is just meaningless window dressing, inferring “transparency” but devoid of any meaningful and useful information for the average Florida resident. And no, the HIPPA laws are no excuse for the absence of this information since no names are given and privacy is not violated.

The data provides the number of “negative” test results without providing the total number of tests given.  We can assume that 113 tests were given based on the 13 total that tested positive.  I suppose it is a bit embarrassing and concerning that only 113 tests were given in a state with a population of  over 21 million.   As it stands, the 100 testing negative is not only useless fluff but terribly misleading.  Why were only these (113?) people tested? Were they symptomatic? What about those in contact with these who are asymptomatic? Were any of those tested?

The same can be said of the number of people being monitored:  What is the location, age, condition, etc.?  Why were they monitored?  Did any show symptoms?

C’mon, Florida Health.  You can do better.  Or are political priorities taking precedent over what you report to Florida citizens?

I suspect that many other state “departments of health” are being similarly sloppy or deceptively non-transparent in their reporting.

*****

My own experience:  Nothing can make your blood pressure rise more than the nurse refusing to tell you what your blood pressure is.

*****


Here is the copy and paste from the referenced web page:


HomeDiseases and Conditions COVID-19

COVID-19

2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

as of 9:15 a.m. ET 3/7/2020

Positive Cases of COVID-19

7 – Florida Residents

5 – Florida Cases Repatriated

1 – Non-Florida resident

Deaths

2 – Florida Residents

Number of Negative Test Results

100

Number of Pending Testing Results

88

Number of People Under Public Health Monitoring

278 – currently being monitored

1010 – people monitored to date

People Under Public Health Monitoring: The number of people under public health monitoring includes those at risk of having been exposed to COVID-19 who are monitoring their health under the supervision of public health officials.

Florida Cases Repatriated: The United States Department of State officially coordinated the return of a person living in Florida to the United States and those persons are isolated at a federally designated site until healthy. A repatriated case is when the United States Department of State officially coordinates the return of a Florida resident to the United States.

Presumptive Positive: A Presumptive Positive is when a state health lab has a positive test without CDC confirmation.

Confirmed: A Confirmed status is given when the Presumptive Positive sample is then confirmed by the CDC.

COVID-19

COVID-19 Call Center



Action—Prevent Respiratory Illness
Updated 09:41 a.m. March 04 2020
download individual files | download whole campaign

Sunday, March 01, 2020

Covid-19 Update: Status of Predictions

I will update the predictions I made here last week.  But first, here are “lessons learned”, “hunches” and “two sides of the ‘hype’” concerning Covid-19.

First, lessons learned:

  • This is not the time to be on cruise ships.  Even in the best of times they are floating petri dishes.  Now, unless you’re a gambler and the prize of a two week quarantine in your 8’ by 10’ cabin is to your liking, best to avoid.  HERE is the latest incident from Los Angeles.  But then again, worse has occurred in the past  among many cruise ships as described HERE.
  • There are myriads of conspiracy theories ranging from Covid-19 being a Chinese biological attack, to it being a US CIA or deep state hatched plot to eliminate the old and infirm.  The problem is, with so many choices of sources for our “facts”, we tend to gravitate toward the facts we tend to agree with and ignore the rest.
  • Personal sanitation like frequent hand washing, remaining in sanitary surroundings, and avoiding crowds and close contact with others, while sounding excessively simplistic, are the best ways to avoid this illness and any viral or bacteriological illness.

Hunches:

  • The US CDC screwed up royally with their first batch of test kits.  Their first batch distributed to states in early February were defective.  The recipients were ordered not to use them.
  • Florida has no useful test kits.  This is the reason why state officials have refused to release the number of people tested and the results.  This isn’t because of HIPPA.  It is because no one has been tested and there are no results.  But instead of embarrassing the Federal government regarding the CDC screwup (Florida does have a pro-Trump governor), Florida officials are taking the hit by being less than transparent, aka, withholding the fact of no test kits being available.
  • Disneyworld in Orlando, and the many other amusement parks,  are land-based versions of cruise ships.  Upwards of half their crowds are comprised of foreigners [politically correct: “international community”] closely mingling, touching, eating, bath-rooming.  These parks remains a prolific viral transmission point until closed.
  • Covid-19 may not be significantly less active in warmer weather.  This is evidenced by the fact that there are breakouts in several warm weather nations near the equator.
  • The negative impacts on the world’s economy will equal or surpass the negative impacts of the virus itself on world’s human health.  This is becoming obvious with the stock market and promised supply chain shortages.

Two sides of the ‘hype’:

  • One extreme - Doomsayers:  Oh my God, this is going to kill us all.  It will continue to mutate, we will never get a vaccine, all the officials are telling us lies, the deep state, CIA, Communist China, Jews, Blacks, Mexicans, White Supremacists [take your pick] are all out to get us.
  • The other extreme – Oblivious:  “This is just like the normal seasonal flu”; “Nothing to worry about”; “This is all overblown hype”; “It’s all made up conspiracy BS.”
  • In-between these two extremes:  The truth is somewhere between these two extremes.  The media was ignoring Covid-19 until a week or two ago.  Now they see it as a viewing/advertising money maker and will hype it for all it’s worth. The leftists/democrats will use the occasion to try to destroy Trump.  The most faithful Trump supporters will promote the idea that his low key approach is right on target.


Now on to my predictions from last week.  The probabilities of these predictions are carried over from last week and are indicated in parentheses (%%).  In several instances I have changed the probability as noted.

1. When will this virus be declared a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO)?  Prior to March 1, 2020. (90%)

This question should be modified to read “When will the world’s health care community consider Covid-19 a “pandemic?” 

It is now March 1 and the WHO has not yet declared a “pandemic” to the regret of many health experts who believe the declaration should have been made a couple weeks ago.  But the WHO has raised it’s threat level assessment to it’s highest level, a level few ever heard of, a couple days ago as described HERE.  And, for those of us wondering WHY WHO has not yet declared this pandemic a pandemic, HERE is an article describing the 425 billion reasons why they refuse to call the Covid-19 outbreak a “Pandemic”.

“It's becoming increasingly apparent why the World Health Organization (WHO) has had a difficult time calling Covid-19 outbreak a "pandemic," this is because it would cause both bonds to trigger, effectively wiping out bondholders.”  Zero Hedge


2. When will total confirmed US cases exceed 1,000?  This is tricky because the US does not possess many reliable test kits.  So not much testing can be done.  It is certain that there will be many more infected people in the US than will be reported.  More HERE.   Prior to March 7. (70%)

Yes, determining the number of Covid-19 cases in the US certainly is tricky when no reliable test kits are available and no, or very few, tests have been conducted.  California, one of three states reported to have any test kits, have only 400 or so kits for their 39.5 million residents.  The CDC reported earlier that test kits distributed to states in early February were defective/unreliable and should not be used. While only 20-some cases have been confirmed in the US thus far, we can be certain that many hundreds more undocumented cases are roaming the countryside and cities.  Just a month ago many in the US were critical of the Chinese for undercounting the infected.  Here we are in the same spot.  Once kits are distributed next week, expect to see the number of cases explode in the following week.  More on CDC missteps with their test kits HEREHERE is an article on the CDC’s apparent “don’t test – don’t tell” policy.


3. When will the cases in the US warrant the first city to be under quarantine?   Prior to March 15. (80%)

Defining terms, there is a difference between “quarantine” and “isolation.”  As I read recently, (source unknown)…

“They don't quarantine sick people. They quarantine well people, on the basis that they "might" become sick later. You're quarantined on the basis of being in proximity of infected people. They isolate sick people.

The Red Cross informs us further, "…both quarantine and isolation may be compelled on a mandatory basis through legal authority as well as conducted on a voluntary basis."

At this point, there are a number of self-quarantines in several cities, but not city-wide yet.  The cruise-ship passengers from Japan are under both mandatory quarantine and isolation, depending on whether they are suspect or infected.


4. When will the first hospital in the US be reported to be overrun by virus patients due to lack of hospital capacity? Prior to March 15. (90%); Reduce to 70%.

The objective of US health officials is to delay rapid spread of sickness to avoid overcrowding the hospital system.  The greatest fear is that hospitals could be overrun with Covid-19 patients, and those seriously injured in car accidents or who have other life-threatening conditions will not have access to needed hospital treatment.  Fortunately, of those infected, fewer than 10% require hospital-level treatment.  But that still could be a large number.


5. When will the outbreak be declared a “national emergency” in the US?  Before April 1, 2020. (90%); Reduce to 50%.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Azar declared a “Public Health Emergency” for United States due to Covid-19 on January 31st.  That is not the same as a “national emergency.”  HERE is a helpful article on the difference.  Given the low key vibe the President wants to attribute to this event, I wonder if a “National Emergency”, a more serious declaration, will ever be pronounced.  The state of Washington declared a “state of emergency” on Saturday after one death where the deceased’s source of the virus remains unknown. But they frequently make that declaration for snow storms, too.


6. How will people in the US react to quarantine?  In the larger cities, unlike as shown in China, there will be looting and riots, by April 1. (90%) 

There will not be anywhere near the degree of compliance to quarantine in the US as there was in China.  US citizens are more likely to disobey and rebel in both non-violent and violent ways. (95%)

Many in the medical field consider China’s “draconian” methodology to be the new gold standard for the suppression of epidemics and potential pandemics.  Such measures work  in a totalitarian, highly regimented nation where suppression and punishment keep people at heel, like dogs.  Would such measures be effective or tolerated in the US?  I doubt it.  Consequently our leaders have the option to be loose with their “enforcement” and allow a greater spread of the virus, or clamp down like China and brace for suppression and really bad PR.


7. China and nations of southeast Asia whose production and exports will be reduced by 70+% through at least Spring, manufacture the bulk of pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.  Consequently there will be supply shortages of masks, other medical supplies and equipment, medical personnel, hospital beds, large varieties of consumer goods and components for other manufacturing in the US.  Such shortages will become widespread before April 1 in many areas of the nation.  (80%); Increase this to 95%.

Shortages of some prescription meds are already being noted.  HERE is a Food and Drug Administration website where medicine shortages are listed.  Supply chain shortages will impact US manufacturers and retailers well into the summer. HERE is a website that discusses the extent to which our retail stores are likely to be impacted by April.


8. When will we first observe a large number of people in shopping areas wear a medical or N95 mask?  Prior to April 15. (80%)

Wearing of masks is likely already common near areas or cities where there are outbreaks, notably in California, Washington, and Oregon, although I haven’t seen this reported yet. Medical masks are usually used to keep potential infection in.  But they are marginally useful as a temporary measure for an hour or two if you have to go out among the herd, but not effective if moist from breath.  Their best use is twofold: To keep people at a distance from you because they will probably think YOU are infected and to keep your dirty mitts off your mouth, nose and eyes.  3M has committed to produce 35 million masks per month, primarily for health care professionals.


9. When will a good part of the US population decide to “self-quarantine?”  Prior to May 1. (80%)  Increase to 90%.

Some are doing this already in areas near confirmed outbreaks.  The numbers will dramatically increase in the coming weeks as more reliable test kits are used.  However, this won’t necessarily be an “all or nothing” exercise.  Many will gradually change their habits, initially avoiding the obvious transmission locations such as amusement parks, sports venues, auditoriums, even churches.  Retailers and restaurants will be the last places to be avoided, at least based on our habits.


10. The US  (and world) economy will be hit hard.  Many predict a worse hit than the “Great Recession of 2008”. (90%) Increase to 95+%.

This prediction is well on its way to confirmation.  As more people self-quarantine and reduce their normal shopping and entertainment, and as supply chain parts and products dry up from China, our economy will take a huge hit.  The stock market is currently in the process of anticipating this.

****************

My personal bottom line for my own actions in the coming days is this:

Given my understanding about the lack of testing thus far in the US due to the lack of reliable test kits, I am assuming that many more are infected than presently reported.  No one under these circumstances can be certain of the number or geographic spread and location of the Covid-19 outbreak.  Consequently, until testing becomes more widespread and reliable, I will curtail my involvement in group activities and other circumstances where contraction of the virus is likely.  As the President’s press conference yesterday (February 29th) stated, those who are healthy have little to worry about.  That also means that the elderly and those with existing health issues are more vulnerable to life-threatening consequences.  These facts inform my actions.

Monday, February 24, 2020

My first encounter with TDS, and my advice

For the first time in my adult life I was blessed with an email from an individual who was suffering from TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome.)  Yup, my first encounter with such specimen.

His  initial triggers were his disagreement with my self-admittedly untrained predictions about the impacts of the Covid-19 virus, and his belief that I was a hypocrite.  But later in his email he revealed his underlying TDS that was the cause of his distress.

Here is the complete text of his email:

Since you are a self-admittedly untrained & not a medical professional, you should stop with the fear mongering! I bet you warned people that they should stockpile food and gold for Y2K too! 

You made a bunch of predictions indicating a high percentage of certainty about the coronavirus. If you are so certain, put your money where your mouth is!

I'll bet you $5,000 that your predictions do not come true. Not a joke, I'm making a serious and sincere offer.

Oh, but I forgot, your a Christian so you probably don't gamble. Yet you'll support a jackass like Trump who has been married three times, paid off porn stars, and who gleefully boast about "grabbing women by the @#$^".

If Obama (who I did not vote for by the way) had done these things you would have been apoplectic. But since Trump installs judges you like you give him a pass. Presumably you familiar with the word hypocrite?

I replied very late at night, so I was not on my very best “Christian” behavior:

Dear Bernie (not his real name)

If you consider what I have written [to be] "fear mongering", that demonstrates to me that you have been among the many individuals who have chosen to be uninformed or who just haven't been paying attention.

While I am not and have clearly stated I am not a medical professional, I have kept abreast of this topic.  I won't trouble you with noting the time I've spent and the many sources I've accessed.  Suffice to say I have obviously been paying more attention to these current events than you have.  I'm amused that someone as admittedly uninformed as I am could provoke you so badly.

You are correct, I am not a gambling man like you.  That is why I am paying attention to events and reaching reasonable conclusions.  Only a fool would offer a bet like you have made. Go ahead, stick your head further into the mire and roll your dice.

Instead of being fearful, it is better to be aware and prepared; my valuable "tip of the day." No charge.

Others who ignore reality may be good candidates to represent President Xi Jinping of China in being his mouthpiece in declaring everything is fine, nothing to see here, so they can snow the world into believing they are open for business when they clearly are not.  Have you considered applying?  You'd be excellent!

I hope you are right about "nothing to see here."  But reading your arrogant obliviousness, I really don't care if you remain oblivious and bear the consequences.

On your other chosen but unrelated sideline topic, you fail to understand human nature, or are just naturally unpleasant.  Everyone is a hypocrite to a degree.  And if you believe you are perfect, you probably don't know you are deceived to boot. 

I choose the lesser of evils.  No one is perfect. Regarding Trump, yours is my first email from a person suffering from "Trump Derangement Syndrome", (TDS), a condition where an individual exhibits rage against Trump-induced successes. See, I can BS my way through psychiatry, too!  Anyway, you make me feel so blessed (a Christian term) for finally having this growth experience.

At least Trump kept his promises, unlike so many politicians. "Promises made, promises kept" as we like to say. Perhaps you don't like the promises he kept.  Perhaps you prefer open borders, criminal illegal aliens, taxpayer funds used to subsidize illegals, higher taxes, higher unemployment, lower wages, out-sourcing US jobs (see where that gets us over the next few months with our sole-sourcing to China) more government regulations, socialism, and corrupt bureaucrat-controlled "deep state" government.

I voted for Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, a very moral man, and arguably one of the worst presidents in history.

Trump and everything he represents is miles ahead and preferred over any Democrat running.

You appear to have a lot of pent up resentment toward my blogs.  Take two pills, any pills, and don't call me in the morning.

So much for what I learned in my Dale Carnegie course.  However, I felt much better, had a good night’s sleep and look forward to blocking his future emails to me should he choose to reply.

Seriously, most people with whom I share my thoughts about the virus give me the distinct impression that they don’t know much about it and don’t really care.  This includes medical professionals.  I attribute this reaction to three things:  1) Our innate “normalcy” bias whereby the prospect of forced drastic change is uncomfortable and too hard to think about, so we don’t, 2) Preoccupation with their narrow profession, whether it be cardiology, sales, accounting, or anything else, along with their family responsibilities, and 3) Most media hasn’t paid much attention, preferring to focus on gossip column-type events and flinging innuendos about Trump, so we aren’t exposed to many things that may more significantly impact our lives than what happened in the network gossip columns.

The next 30-days will reveal how right or wrong I and others have been.  Stay tuned.

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Covid-19 (Novel Coronavirus): What to expect…

Official names: 2019-nCoV, aka SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19.  Informal names: Coronavirus (there were many forms of “coronavirus” prior to this strain); “Wuhan” virus, Chinese city of origin; novel coronavirus.

Yes, it is novel, it is new, it’s full of surprises.  There is a lot we don’t know about it.  There is a lot to learn.  Experts have been proven wrong, sometimes more wrong than “conspiracy theorists.”

Here is a list of what I know (which you should take with a grain of salt.)  So my “grain of salt” is in the form of my percentage (%%) degree of certainty behind each statement.

  • It spreads much faster than SARS, MERS, EBOLA, or Swine Flu .  See animated growth graphic HERE. (100%).
  • As of February 23, there were over 79,000 cases in 31 nations according to THIS SITE. (50%)  Most observers, including many experts believe this number of cases and spread are much higher. (100%)
  • Comparisons with seasonal flu the the US:  Bottom line, the mortality rate of Covid-19 is tens of times greater than the seasonal flu. This, coupled with predictions that 60% of the population will become infected, these facts become quite alarming.  (95%)
  • The mortality rate is reported to be around 2.5% (+/-0.5%) of confirmed cases. (90%) 
  • Mortality is markedly higher among people over the age of 50, especially over the age of 70 primarily due to co-morbidities, especially with pre-existing conditions of chronic bronchitis, asthma, COPD, diabetes, untreated hypertension, and various heart conditions.  With these conditions, mortality rates are >10%. (90%)
  • An infected individual without symptoms (asymptomatic) can spread the disease to others for over 24 days before he manifests symptoms. (90%).  The realization that asymptomatic carriers could transmit the disease only occurred last month.  It was only a week ago that this period of asymptomatic spread was thought to be limited to 14 days.  Consequently, quarantine was for a period of only 14 days for those who were suspected of coming in contact with a carrier.  That has been shown to be grossly inadequate. This is the primary reason for the rapid spread as shown in the graph linked in the first bullet point, above.  (90%)
  • Recidivism: There have been claims that this virus, unlike the common flu, can recur in an individual within a few weeks of apparent “cure.”  This would be a unique characteristic of this virus because the body’s immune system typically develops antibodies that create subsequent immunity.  The most likely reason is a mutation of the virus in the body that makes it different just enough so that the original antibodies do not effectively fight the new version. (50%)
  • Some fairly high proportion of tests for Covid-19 present false negatives.  That means additional infected people are released into the general population. (95+%)
  • Treatment of the virus:  Treatments have varied with different degrees of success dependent on timing of treatment and age and comorbidities of the patient.  Most often patients are given oxygen, and steroidal treatments.  Some are given anti-HIV treatments.  Antibiotics are often used to treat bacterial infections that are a common secondary effect of the virus.  It is noteworthy that China manufactures or has the primary ingredients for over 90% of all antibiotics produced in the world.  They also produce or have the primary ingredients for around 80% of all pharmaceuticals produced worldwide. (90%)
  • Warm weather cessation of the virus:  This is an unknown.  There are several nations in the vicinity of the equator that are experiencing outbreaks.  (50%)
  • Source of virus:  Initial official narratives claimed it originated in an exotic animal/food market in Wuhan, China.  Many “experts” stick by this claim.  However, there is increasing chatter, now also among some more mainstream media, that this virus has indeed escaped by as yet unknown means from the Level 4 bio lab located several hundred yards from the exotic animal food market.  The means of “escape” could have been via sale of tested animals from the lab to the market for quick profit as has been known to occur, or some other more insidious means. (70%)

For more information on the advance of this virus, Dr. John Campbell videos HERE give a reasoned approach.  Zero Hedge is a bit edgier and provides a broader perspective with more info on the ground HERE, and of coarse, the CDC which give the government perspective, HERE.

I’ll stop here for my untrained “medical” diagnoses. 

Now for my predictions based partly on the above disease characteristics, partly on the social propensities of the United States versus more highly regulated (dictatorial/Communist) societies like China, and partly on common sense.

  • When will this virus be declared a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO)?  Prior to March 1, 2020. (90%)
  • When will total confirmed US cases exceed 1,000?  This is tricky because the US does not possess many reliable test kits.  So not much testing can be done.  It is certain that there will be many more infected people in the US than will be reported.  More HERE.   Prior to March 7. (70%)
  • When will the cases in the US warrant the first city to be under quarantine?   Prior to March 15. (80%)
  • When will the first hospital in the US be reported to be overrun by virus patients due to lack of hospital capacity? Prior to March 15. (90%)
  • When will the outbreak be declared a “national emergency” in the US?  Before April 1, 2020.
  • How will people in the US react to quarantine?  In the larger cities, unlike as shown in China, there will be looting and riots, by April 1. (90%)  There will not be anywhere near the degree of compliance to quarantine in the US as there was in China.  US citizens are more likely to disobey and rebel in both non-violent and violent ways. (95%)
  • China and nations of southeast Asia whose production and exports will be reduced by 70+% through at least Spring, manufacture the bulk of pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.  Consequently there will be supply shortages of masks, other medical supplies and equipment, medical personnel, hospital beds, large varieties of consumer goods and components for other manufacturing in the US.  Such shortages will become widespread before April 1 in many areas of the nation.  (80%)
  • When will we first observe a large number of people in shopping areas wear a medical or N95 mask?  Prior to April 15. (80%)
  • When will a good part of the US population decide to “self-quarantine?”  Prior to May 1. (80%)
  • The US  (and world) economy will be hit hard.  Many predict a worse hit than the “Great Recession of 2008”. (90%)

Shop early.  And I hope I’m wrong.


Monday, February 17, 2020

Will this pandemic be a nail in the coffin of globalism?

I’ve listened to many folks who minimize the potential impact of COVID-19 (Wuhan Coronavirus) by comparing it to the annual US flu.  They conclude that more die from the regular flu than the “mere 1,800” or so that died so far from COVID-19 – so why the worry.
Yes, it is true that more die annually from the annual flu in the US than from COVID-19, so far.
From Microsoft News:
Flu season is hitting its stride right now in the US. So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.

However, let’s compare some vital facts:

Flu in the US kills around 0.1% of those who contract it.

For the most part, the “standard” flu infects others only after symptoms appear enabling timely self-quarantining.

On the other hand, COVID-19 is reported to kill 2.5% of those who contract it.  That is a mortality rate 25 times that of the standard flu in the US.  In the older than age 60 population, the COVID-19 death rate is much higher, beyond 10%.

Even more concerning is the fact that symptoms manifest themselves anywhere from two to 24 days after contracting the virus.  During this period, the virus is transmissible.  So people who show no symptoms can and do unknowingly transmit COVID-19 to others.

Add to this the fact that the current tests for COVID-19 frequently show a false negative meaning that even though the test is negative, the person tested is actually a carrier.
Now let’s pivot over to what is a significant “super spreader” of pandemics:  Globalism.
I introduce to you Laurie Garrett,  who, according to Wikipedia, is a noted

“…American science journalist and author. She was awarded the Pulitzer Prize for Explanatory Journalism in 1996 for a series of works published in Newsday, chronicling the Ebola virus outbreak in Zaire.[1]

She is interviewed in a current YouTube video, HERE, where she discusses various aspects of COVID-19.  The one plus hour video is factual and helpful up till five minutes before its conclusion where she reveals her strong globalism bias.

I am not the only one who was struck by her politics.  Here are two comments about her interview:

At around 1 hour 8 minutes - I can NOT believe she equated quarantine policies with racism.

Same here. I was actually enjoying her talk and then she went to the racism bullshit. The general population has been so brainwashed on this whole diversity bullcrap that all they see around them is the racism they've invented in their minds. This cancerous thinking can't die fast enough.

And I added the following observations:
Throughout her interview she described how air travel, international cruises, and an open, global society spread this particular virus.  But at the end she added that anti-globalization is going to be a big impediment to suppressing an outbreak.  Sounds like forked tongue, trying to have it both ways. Then she called those who are against globalization “racists.”

No, no, it's not racism. It's looking at facts. It's looking at who - what region, what nation - is the potential carrier based on the source of infection. Damn, she sounded really credible until the last few minutes of the interview. Then she sounded like every other socialist democrat, an anti-nationalist, a globalist, a fund the UNist, a one-worlder. The global spread of viruses is an effective justification for increased nationalism.

Heck, look at our medical supply chain. 90% of medical supplies, prescription medicines, latex gloves, protective suits, face masks, respirators; all made in one nation, China, the source of the outbreak. When a nation does not make its own essential supplies, whether medical or defense related, that nation is exceedingly and unnecessarily vulnerable and exposed.

Who does Laurie Garratt, this globalist expert, work for?  Low and behold, her employer is the Council on Foreign Relations, the foremost promoter of globalism on the planet.

In 2004 Garrett joined the Council on Foreign Relations as the Senior Fellow of the Global Health Program.  Wikipedia

Yes indeed.  The source of one’s income certainly does bias one’s politics – even to the extent of saying one thing during most of a one hour interview, and concluding with the opposite in the last five minutes.

In the bulk of her interview Garrett explained all the ways COVID-19 is spread through open borders, international flights, international cruise ships, and wide open international trade, and concludes that globalism is fantastic.
Sure, it is wonderful for medically advanced nations to assist those nations that are not as fortunate to help avoid or minimize the impacts of pandemic.  But that benevolence does not argue for globalism any more than desiring secure borders and promoting nationalism makes one a racist.

At this point it is more appropriate than ever to promote secure borders, to vet those who cross those borders not just for their political and cultural intentions and compatibility, but now more than ever, to determine what disease they are carrying across the border.  COVID-19 is not the first formerly “eradicated” disease to cross our border.  World Net Daily reports

Cramped conditions and the spread of difficult-to-treat diseases has doctors worried in the wake of a massive influx of children coming across the Mexican-U.S. border, many of them from Central and South America. Outbreaks of scabies, lice, dengue fever, tuberculosis and other diseases – many of them contagious – are already being documented among the children and in some border agents who work among them.

Whether they are legal or illegal border crossers, a 14-day minimum quarantine period is essential.

Call it “nationalism”; call it whatever.  Stronger borders, not “globalism” is the way to maintain not only a healthier nation, but a more prosperous and self-sufficient one.
Is this pandemic another nail in the coffin of globalism?  If it isn’t, it should be.

Sunday, February 02, 2020

Can ******-free Zones be Justified?

I am being very, very careful not to mention the name of any belief system, group of people, or individual so that I will not upset the sensitivities of snowflakes, leftists, adherents of ***** or Google censors.

So, back to the question I asked in a blog over five years ago that was recently deleted by Google as “hate speech”:  “Can ******-free Zones be Justified?”

I must have proclaimed a resounding “you betcha” in my earlier, Google-erased blog, because I guess that’s why they erased it.

Look what happened to our president when he asked the same thing in his attempt to reduce immigration from violence-prone nations that hate the US.  He was appropriately trying to make our entire nation a ******-free zone.  He got himself impeached.  I only got a blog post deleted.

Back to my very clear question:  “Can ******-free Zones be Justified?”

Again, you betcha.  Why?

If said ****** is a devout adherent to the ******* ideology, and given that the ******* ideology promotes violent supremacism and maintains a doctrinally pure and consistent hatred of the religions and values of western civilization, then yes, you betcha they have no place here.  Granted, not all ******* are deeply devoted to the pure doctrine of *****.  The trouble is, because of the deep deception practiced by adherents of *****, it is virtually impossible to know which ***** does or does not believe and practice the doctrines of *****.

So, having concluded without any shadow of doubt that ******-free zones are justified, how can we go about accomplishing this?  It is obvious that liberal judges who overturned our president’s attempts to at least minimize the invasion of our nation by a force of evil against it are clueless concerning ******* doctrine, history, and practice.  So, yes, we need judges who understand the seditious intents and purposes of ******* who devoutly practice *****.

Doesn’t a nation possess the right to admit only those non-citizens who at least don’t hate, if not love this country, to enter into it?  Don’t we have the right to identify nations dominated by people possessing hatred for and violence toward this nation and refuse their entry?

So, yes, ******-free zones are absolutely justified:  In your neighborhood, town, county, state and nation.  Diversity based on gross incompatibility with those who believe in and use violence to further their ends brings nothing but strife and demonstrably deadly consequences.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Muccings Banned by Google-Blogger!

Yes, indeed. I went to my phone yesterday morning to check on emails and there it was: An email from Google telling me that I violated their "Terms of Service" of their Blogspot/Blogger app. Why?

Here are the two emails I received from Google:

Blogger <no-reply@google.com>

Wed, Jan 29, 5:53 AM (1 day ago)

Hello, Your blog at http://muccings.blogspot.com/ has been reviewed and confirmed as in violation of our Terms of Service for: HATE. In accordance to these terms, we've removed the blog and the URL is no longer accessible. For more information, please review the following resources: Terms of Service: https://www.blogger.com/go/terms Blogger Content Policy: https://blogger.com/go/contentpolicy -The Blogger Team

----

Blogger <no-reply@google.com>

Wed, Jan 29, 6:19 AM (1 day ago)

Hello,
     Your post titled "Can Muslim-Free Zones be Justified?" at
http://muccings.blogspot.com/2015/01/can-muslim-free-zones-be-justified.html
has been identified as in violation of our Terms of Service for hate
speech. In accordance to these terms, we've removed the post, and the URL
is no longer accessible.
     For more information, please review the following resources:
     Terms of Service: https://www.blogger.com/go/terms
     Blogger Content Policy: https://blogger.com/go/contentpolicy
     Sincerely,
     The Blogger Team

The blog titled "Can Muslim-Free Zones be Justified?" was written over five years ago. That apparently offended a Muslim, leftist, or snowflake to the extent that they complained to Google about it. And Google, in their predictably intolerant, offend-no-one, knee jerk mentality, instantly banned my blog into oblivion - 10 years worth - without notice. Many conservative bloggers who go against the leftist narrative experienced the same fate. One of my favorites, Pamela Geller, changed from Blogspot several years ago. She saw the censor coming. I was not as prescient.

But wait, there’s MORE…

Later that same day I received another email from Blogger:

Blogger no-reply@google.com   Wed, Jan 29, 9:49 PM (10 hours ago)

Hello, We have received your appeal regarding your blog http://muccings.blogspot.com/. Upon further review we have determined that your blog was mistakenly marked as a TOS violator by our automated system and, as such, we have reinstated your blog. We apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused in the meantime and thank you for your patience as we completed our review process. Thank you for understanding. Sincerely, The Blogger Team

The blog was “mistakenly marked” as a “terms of service” violator.

That was a wake up call to the fact that,

(1) Google Blogger can, will, and does, at its sole discretion and without notice or legitimate cause, unilaterally eliminate content from its sites, and

(2) Google has been known to do this to blogs and web sites with conservative leanings on a frequent basis.

The removal of 10-years worth of Muccings, even with their “generous” reinstatement, was enough for me to be wary of Google Blogger.”  In fact they did permanently remove the one blog post discussing whether “Muslim-free zones can be justified.”  I’m guessing the problem Google Blogger had with that is that not all who say they are Muslim agree with all  or most of the Islamic doctrine and practice.  So if I wrote “Can Islamic doctrine-free zones be justified” that post might not have been removed.  I will soon rewrite that blog to express while the great majority of Muslim likely believe the vile Islamic doctrine, the majority do and deserve close scrutiny.

So, stay tuned.

Friday, January 24, 2020

How forthcoming has China been about the mystery virus?

One can be expected to not get the straight poop from a closed, Communist nation like China.  And that is likely the situation concerning the Wuhan virus. As one source pointed out, more accurate information is likely provided by the rumor mill (people on the ground) than from “official China outlets.”

As of January 26, we are told by official China outlets of 56 deaths from the virus and a mortality rate of 2.8%.   HERE is one report from other sources of 10,000 dead in Wuhan alone.

CORONAVIRUS: Reports of 10,000 DEAD in Wuhan, China

Further, the Daily Mail reports that …

“China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan - and US biosafety experts warned in 2017 that a virus could 'escape' the facility that's become key in fighting the outbreak".”

Little snippets of info are beginning to paint a more troublesome story than has be reported so far.

As you recall over the last few days it has been reported that the source of the virus was from a bat delicacy at a market.  And then we heard it may be from a snake.

Here is a post from an individual familiar with Asian cuisine, and particularly with the types of foods Chinese official outlets attributed to the outbreak:

Poster 1:

I don't buy into this bat/snake folderol. I've eaten fruit bat upon many occasions. Cooked in coconut milk, it's absolutely delicious and considered a delicacy throughout Micronesia. On the snake story, I had some wealthy acquaintances, long ago, that had quail hunting leases outside of Del Rio. The number of times that I ate rattlesnake … I lost count of. Point of fact, someone told me that chicken tastes quite a bit like rattlesnake.

Poster 2:

Knock yourself out, … though I suspect your post is an attempt at weird humor….I'll stick to beef, pork, fresh fish, etc. and a multitude of fresh vegetables and fruits prepared under sanitary conditions. The big problem is that China, most of Asia, India, Africa and various 3rd world countries are unsanitary dungholes.

Poster 1:

…When I lived, in the Marianas…fruit bat is an absolute delicacy. It's cooked in coconut milk. There's actually a hunting/trapping season. And, when hunting quail, outside of Del Rio, we often shot rattlesnakes. One of the reasons that hunting with bird dogs isn't recommended. And, wearing of chaps is highly encouraged. I've eaten a lot of rattlesnake.
I challenge you to find one city, any city, in the PRC that is one-tenth as filthy as Los Angeles, San Francisco, Baltimore, Chicago … and the list goes on and on and on. Filth is piled over two stories in many areas of Baltimore, Detroit, etc.

Me:

So, do you believe the virus lab breakout story has more credibility [than the animal market story]?

Poster 1:

Yes

Here is a photo that has been in the national news over the past couple of days.  Several dozen pieces of heavy earth moving equipment are preparing the ground for the 10-day, super fast track, construction of a large hospital in Wuhan to help treat the infected population, where “only 25 have died.”

Huge efforts are being made by construction workers in Wuhan to erect a new hospital in less than a week on the government's orders. Officials said the medical facility must be built to cope with overwhelming numbers of coronavirus patients

Question for those familiar with the planning and construction of large hospitals:  When is the last time you’ve seen this level of construction activity for construction of a hospital with less than three weeks of advance planning? Survey work alone would take a week or more.  Drawing up plans longer still.  What is the likelihood that a “fully transparent” Chinese government has given us the full story behind this mystery virus outbreak?  How many months do you think the Chinese government has been aware of this outbreak?  And is it a breakout of a weaponized strain from their less than stellar Level 4 lab?

Update January 24:

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding‏ @DrEricDing, a public health scientist on the faculty at Harvard.

“I’ll be honest - as an epidemiologist, I’m really deeply worried about this new coronavirus outbreak. 1) the virus has an upward infection trajectory curve much steeper than SARS. 2) it can be transmitted person to person before symptoms appear — I.e. it is silently contagious!”

“HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! [multiplier of new infections from one infected person] How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating… #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

What does this mean for those who were on a plane or in a crowd with people who showed NO symptoms yet, but who came down with this virus days or a week later?  You probably received it.

Thursday, January 23, 2020

The US “Brexit”: UNexit

Should the US exit the UN?

There have been proposals and demands for the United States (US) to leave the United Nations (UN) ever since it was created in 1945.

But US membership and funding of this international “peacekeeping” organization continues.

Funding?  What funding? The US pays the UN about $3.3 billion annually, about 22% of the total UN budget.  Much of this is to promote UN policies and programs contrary to US interests.

https://www.politifact.com/global-news/statements/2017/feb/01/rob-portman/us-contribution-un-22-percent/

But but but…there are benefits to the US remaining a member.  There have been no new world wars since 1945.  We are on the UN Security Council.  We can veto any proposal or mandate that we don’t agree with.  Our membership reinforces our status among the worlds most powerful nations.  The UN sends peacekeeping forces around the world.  Who knows how many holocausts and wars the UN has prevented?

Who knows, indeed.  How many skirmishes and local wars has the UN perpetuated?  How much UN money goes to illicit tribes and armies fighting against freedom? And of the areas where the UN has “peacekeeping” forces funded significantly by the US, are they in the interests of the US?  Not many know that, either. 

In other words, is the value of US membership in the UN similar to the value of Britain’s former membership in the European Union (EU)?  Asked another way, should the US question if its national interests are best served by remaining in the UN as Britain questioned whether its national interests were best served by remaining in the European Union?  They were not.  So Britain got out.

Sure, there are differences.  Britain’s laws and trade were subsumed by EU laws and trade agreements whereas the US still maintains much greater autonomy as a UN member.  All this means is that Britain’s membership in the EU mandated loss of autonomy and influence while the US membership in the UN results in a voluntary loss of autonomy and influence.

Here is why this is the case: 

How many of the members of the UN share US interests?  How many share similar forms of governance, beliefs, cultures, and values?  The UN has 93 member states.  Among these, fewer than a dozen share US values.  The rest are either majority Islamic nations, communist nations, socialist, or nations teetering between socialism and anarchy.

There are 45 Muslim majority member nations.  And by “majority”, it isn’t 51% or even 80%.  A “majority” Islamic nation is typically high 90+% Muslim.  Add to that the dozens of Muslim special interest groups with representatives running up and down halls of the UN lobbying for Islamic interests.  Included among these special interest groups are:

  • Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC, 57 UN Member States)
  • Islamic Development Bank (IDB, 57 UN Member States)
  • Arab League (formerly League of Arab States, 22 UN Member States)
  • Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD, 29 UN Member States)
  • Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, or more commonly, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, 6 UN Member States)
  • East African Community (EAC, 6 UN Member States)
  • Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS, 15 UN Member States)
  • Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS, 9 UN Member States and 1 affiliated member)

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the primary Islamic “representative” at the UN, alone is comprised of 57 Islamic nations:

Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Brunei Darussalam, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros, Cote D'Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Suriname, Tajikistan, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Yemen.

https://www.quora.com/How-are-Islamic-countries-represented-in-the-UN

And then there are the communist nations including Russia, Cuba, Vietnam, and China.  Add to this the dozen or more hard core socialist nations like Venezuela, most European member nations, and half of the South American member nations and we suddenly realize that over 75 nations of the 93 members of the UN have national interests diametrically opposed to those of the US.

Even though the US has veto power, we don’t and can’t influence most of the policies and programs, not to mention the actions, of the UN.  Who has the most overall, day to day, influence in the UN?  Islamic, communist, and socialist nations.  And between these three, Islamic nations carry the most influence and pay the smallest share of expense.

So, is the US getting a worthwhile return on investment?  Where else could that annual $3.3 billion be spent?  Yet, even outside this UN expense, we are still the world’s policeman at a cost of $100’s of billions beyond that.  And if we were not in the UN, we would still be the world’s policeman if that is the path we wish to continue to follow.  How many of our current foreign military installations, airfields, and special forces interventions formally sanctioned by the UN?  Any?

Is our continuing membership and substantial monetary funding of the UN giving unjustified credibility, power, and influence to that body contrary to the interests of the United States?

Should there be a UNexit by the US, using very similar rationale of Britain’s Brexit? 

You be the judge.

Monday, January 20, 2020

US European-bred Christians becoming the new Native American…

Whites in America will become a minority in the US by 2045, according to the Brookings Institution.  Further given the fact of declining Christian belief among the general population, white Christians will become a minority much sooner if not already.

The rest of the US population smells blood in the water, so to speak; I suspect as did the European settlers here in the 17 and 1800’s against native Americans.  You know how THAT turned out.

Christians of European ancestry are the new Native Americans.  I am one.  We think of ourselves as the founders of this nation – the rightful heirs, settlers, and leaders of the land, government, religion, and culture.  We were for 200 years.

Affirmative action has been a dual-edged sword.  It gave opportunity to blacks in the form of favored access to education and jobs.  But it continues to discriminate against deserving whites long after its intended purpose has been achieved.

Unbridled immigration and open borders continue to increase the rapid influx of Latinos and Middle Easterners both of whose birthrates are at least double those of the “new” native Americans.

The term “people of color” now includes EVERYONE except Caucasians.  Isn’t white as much a “color” as “black”?  The term “people of color” has become an accepted racist term against whites.

What can we expect from this paradigm shift?  Look at American history and human nature for the answer.

Affirmative action will live in perpetuity as those initially favored by it will seek their reparations in the form of retribution via this legalized form of reverse discrimination.

The new majority will embrace socialism, and use the tyranny of the majority, aka “democracy” to achieve their political dominance.  Their political dominance will put the new minority, Christians and Caucasians, in their place.  A new form of “reservation” will be created, shades of the plight of the native American.

Transition will occur akin to a slow boil, but the end result is virtually inevitable.  It is as if the European-bred Christians have little regard for their own faith, culture, and heritage, have a death wish and welcome their own demise.

This is a bumper sticker used by those who have so little regard for their own heritage, religion or culture that they pander to everyone else’s.

Monday, January 06, 2020

What happens next with Iran, Iraq, and US policy?

The left in Congress and the media are pleading “doomsday”, WWIII!, and “Trump is out of control with no plan” in response to his order to remove Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani.

These Trump-haters are so full of vitriol against Trump that they have blinded themselves to the facts:

Who was Soleimani?

From the BBC:  “Under his leadership, Iran had bolstered Hezbollah in Lebanon and other pro-Iranian militant groups, expanded Iran's military presence in Iraq and Syria and orchestrated Syria's offensive against rebel groups in the country's long civil war.”

In essence, Soleimani was in charge of terrorism in the Middle East on behalf of Iranian and other jihad-inspired Muslims.  HERE is a link to Soleimani’s “accomplishments”, aka “top ten atrocities” on behalf of the “religion of peace.”

Has the previous United States policy of appeasement worked? 

No.  Our policies under Obama, the not well disguised Muslim, emboldened Iran and like minded infidel-hating nations and bought them time and space to expand their areas of influence and control.  The $1.7 billion Obama sent to Iran in cash was most likely used to fund Iran’s proxy militias to undermine US influence and to further destabilize the Middle East through terror and intimidation.  THAT was appeasement on steroids.

What will Iran do in response?  Here are the possibilities, from most to least likely:

1. Continue  and likely up their game of asymmetrical warfare against Western and more moderate Islamic interests in the region.  These tactics include use of proxy militias and nations in executing terror attacks to intimidate and control, harassment of shipping in narrow regional international shipping channels, and carrying out cyber-attacks against the computerized systems (banking, infrastructure) of first world nations.  In other words, at least in the short term, they will continue what they have been doing, except perhaps a bit more clandestinely, not as readily observably.

2. Through proxies, fire additional missiles at Israel.

3. Directly attack US interests in the region or in the US.

What will the US do going forward?

The US has ended Obama’s regime of appeasement.  The rules of engagement have changed – hallelujah! 

Presidential bluster and threats on our behalf against Iran are essential.  Iran cannot mistakenly believe we will do nothing any longer.  Such talk from Trump unhinges the Democrats, but must be said to minimize stupid actions by Iran.

It is now open season on Iranian military leaders.  The ROE shackles are off.  Iranian militia leaders within Iraq have withdrawn into Iran, supposedly to help ready missile batteries, but more likely to preserve their lives.

We have and will increase our troop strength in the short term in the Middle East to protect our assets.  How long that will be necessary is unknown.  We have and will increase our readiness at home knowing there are Iranian terror cells that are likely to be activated here.

If there is  known to by ANY link between terror carried out in this nation and Iranian influence, the rules of engagement with Iran change further, and significant bombing of Iranian assets becomes more likely.

What about our presence in Iraq?

In spite of the resolution of the Iraqi Parliament, heavily influenced by Iranian interests, by the way, to eject US forces from Iraq, the US can choose to remain, at least for a short while.  While it takes a decision of the Iraqi Executive, currently a “caretaker” government, to change that policy, we could leave sooner than later.  HERE is a not fully verified claim that we may leave sooner than later.  It may be a test, and only a test, of the will of Iraqi leaders. HERE is a later report indicating the above letter was a draft, with no immediate withdrawal pending.  This may be a “misdirect” to confuse everyone, especially Iran –and especially to ferret out where the US presence stands in the minds of Iraqi leadership.

On the other hand, taking out Soleimani despite the explicit rejection to do so by the Iraqi government might have been Trump playing 5-D chess, as someone described, with the full conscious intent being to elicit Iraqi anger as cover for total US withdrawal.  If that is the case, not too many of us are terribly sad.

Despite all this speculation, there is considerable support among Iraqis, notably the Kurds and Sunnis, for the US to remain.  Most Sunni lawmakers and all Kurdish members of parliament sat out the vote – likely out of fear if they overtly voting “no” to the US expulsion vote.

And what about Democrat anti-Americanism?

The words and actions of Democrats in the House, such as hand cuffing the President via limiting the War Powers Act, make them appear to be pro-Iranian and anti-American among most voters.  These actions will motivate the electorate to support Trump as much as the actions of the Virginia Governor sell guns.

A word about “fear”:  Pelosi and her crowd are consumed by fear.  We have indeed become a nation of fearful snowflakes.  A related term is “soft.”  We dare not allow any encroachment into our comfort zones which are many and all consuming.  Fear is the number one reason we have pandered to rogue nations and terror groups.  We are fearful of their threats almost to the point of fearing our own shadows.  Fear is what drives the Democrat party and even most of our Christian churches to cave to every craven thought and act.  We don’t want to offend anyone for any reason.  We fear the potential consequences, even though the potential rewards in both victories and faithfulness are greater than any threat of “offending.”

Friday, January 03, 2020

Thoughts on eliminating the most influential leader of terror in the Middle East…

First, from Jimmy Carter, the peanut farmer, through Barack Hussein Obama, the barely disguised Muslim, US policy has emboldened Iran to become the most prolific source of terror in the Middle East.  Over the past several years Iran had gained influence in Iraq’s government to the point of virtually dictating their every move the government made.  In fact, this past week Iran’s influence was behind the Iraqi government relaxing Green Zone security so that Iran-backed militia could storm the US Embassy.  And Iran for months has been promising violence against both Israeli and US interests in the area.

In response to Trump’s vow to punish Iran for their invasion of our Iraqi embassy, Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on January 1st said that US President Donald Trump was powerless to do anything to Iran.  Within 24 hours of that statement, Iran’s most vaunted military leaders were pulverized by US missiles.

So now, not only are the Iranian jihadis in an uproar,  US democrats are squealing like pigs just before a BBQ.  In fact, they are making more noise than the rabid Muslims of the Middle East.  All because President Trump did the job that both Democrats and Republicans failed to do over the past 40 years.

Will this US action cause upheaval in the Middle East?  The better question is:  Have the actions of Iran caused upheaval in the Middle East?  Yes to both.  Of  course, if the US laid down and played dead, as we had before Trump, and dumped plane loads of cash in the hands of terrorists to “placate” them, as Obama had done, there might be a false impression of stability while Islamic jihadis continue their conquest throughout the Middle East and Africa.

Nancy Pelosi is having kittens:  She’s upset she wasn’t notified of the pending attack – but why would we notify an enemy of the US?  And the Islam-dominated United Nations is expressing concern, of course.

Yes, our stock market will react in the short term.  Oil and gas prices will spike in the short term.  Iran and its terrorist proxies and cells will commit a few more acts of terror.  What else is new?

The most important thing:  There was a clear message sent by the US that we will not tolerate Iranian BS, attacks and threats against the US and our allies.

The Democrats would rather criticize, cower, and placate.  They appear to be on the side of our enemies.  I believe that is called “treason.”