Covid-19 (Novel Coronavirus): What to expect…

Official names: 2019-nCoV, aka SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19.  Informal names: Coronavirus (there were many forms of “coronavirus” prior to this strain); “Wuhan” virus, Chinese city of origin; novel coronavirus.

Yes, it is novel, it is new, it’s full of surprises.  There is a lot we don’t know about it.  There is a lot to learn.  Experts have been proven wrong, sometimes more wrong than “conspiracy theorists.”

Here is a list of what I know (which you should take with a grain of salt.)  So my “grain of salt” is in the form of my percentage (%%) degree of certainty behind each statement.

• It spreads much faster than SARS, MERS, EBOLA, or Swine Flu .  See animated growth graphic HERE. (100%).
• As of February 23, there were over 79,000 cases in 31 nations according to THIS SITE. (50%)  Most observers, including many experts believe this number of cases and spread are much higher. (100%)
• Comparisons with seasonal flu the the US:  Bottom line, the mortality rate of Covid-19 is tens of times greater than the seasonal flu. This, coupled with predictions that 60% of the population will become infected, these facts become quite alarming.  (95%)
• The mortality rate is reported to be around 2.5% (+/-0.5%) of confirmed cases. (90%) 
• Mortality is markedly higher among people over the age of 50, especially over the age of 70 primarily due to co-morbidities, especially with pre-existing conditions of chronic bronchitis, asthma, COPD, diabetes, untreated hypertension, and various heart conditions.  With these conditions, mortality rates are >10%. (90%)
• An infected individual without symptoms (asymptomatic) can spread the disease to others for over 24 days before he manifests symptoms. (90%).  The realization that asymptomatic carriers could transmit the disease only occurred last month.  It was only a week ago that this period of asymptomatic spread was thought to be limited to 14 days.  Consequently, quarantine was for a period of only 14 days for those who were suspected of coming in contact with a carrier.  That has been shown to be grossly inadequate. This is the primary reason for the rapid spread as shown in the graph linked in the first bullet point, above.  (90%)
• Recidivism: There have been claims that this virus, unlike the common flu, can recur in an individual within a few weeks of apparent “cure.”  This would be a unique characteristic of this virus because the body’s immune system typically develops antibodies that create subsequent immunity.  The most likely reason is a mutation of the virus in the body that makes it different just enough so that the original antibodies do not effectively fight the new version. (50%)
• Some fairly high proportion of tests for Covid-19 present false negatives.  That means additional infected people are released into the general population. (95+%)
• Treatment of the virus:  Treatments have varied with different degrees of success dependent on timing of treatment and age and comorbidities of the patient.  Most often patients are given oxygen, and steroidal treatments.  Some are given anti-HIV treatments.  Antibiotics are often used to treat bacterial infections that are a common secondary effect of the virus.  It is noteworthy that China manufactures or has the primary ingredients for over 90% of all antibiotics produced in the world.  They also produce or have the primary ingredients for around 80% of all pharmaceuticals produced worldwide. (90%)
• Warm weather cessation of the virus:  This is an unknown.  There are several nations in the vicinity of the equator that are experiencing outbreaks.  (50%)
• Source of virus:  Initial official narratives claimed it originated in an exotic animal/food market in Wuhan, China.  Many “experts” stick by this claim.  However, there is increasing chatter, now also among some more mainstream media, that this virus has indeed escaped by as yet unknown means from the Level 4 bio lab located several hundred yards from the exotic animal food market.  The means of “escape” could have been via sale of tested animals from the lab to the market for quick profit as has been known to occur, or some other more insidious means. (70%)

For more information on the advance of this virus, Dr. John Campbell videos HERE give a reasoned approach.  Zero Hedge is a bit edgier and provides a broader perspective with more info on the ground HERE, and of coarse, the CDC which give the government perspective, HERE.

I’ll stop here for my untrained “medical” diagnoses. 

Now for my predictions based partly on the above disease characteristics, partly on the social propensities of the United States versus more highly regulated (dictatorial/Communist) societies like China, and partly on common sense.

• When will this virus be declared a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO)?  Prior to March 1, 2020. (90%)
• When will total confirmed US cases exceed 1,000?  This is tricky because the US does not possess many reliable test kits.  So not much testing can be done.  It is certain that there will be many more infected people in the US than will be reported.  More HERE.   Prior to March 7. (70%)
• When will the cases in the US warrant the first city to be under quarantine?   Prior to March 15. (80%)
• When will the first hospital in the US be reported to be overrun by virus patients due to lack of hospital capacity? Prior to March 15. (90%)
• When will the outbreak be declared a “national emergency” in the US?  Before April 1, 2020.
• How will people in the US react to quarantine?  In the larger cities, unlike as shown in China, there will be looting and riots, by April 1. (90%)  There will not be anywhere near the degree of compliance to quarantine in the US as there was in China.  US citizens are more likely to disobey and rebel in both non-violent and violent ways. (95%)
• China and nations of southeast Asia whose production and exports will be reduced by 70+% through at least Spring, manufacture the bulk of pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.  Consequently there will be supply shortages of masks, other medical supplies and equipment, medical personnel, hospital beds, large varieties of consumer goods and components for other manufacturing in the US.  Such shortages will become widespread before April 1 in many areas of the nation.  (80%)
• When will we first observe a large number of people in shopping areas wear a medical or N95 mask?  Prior to April 15. (80%)
• When will a good part of the US population decide to “self-quarantine?”  Prior to May 1. (80%)
• The US  (and world) economy will be hit hard.  Many predict a worse hit than the “Great Recession of 2008”. (90%)

Shop early.  And I hope I’m wrong.