Sunday, August 03, 2014

Trigger points of fear and civil unrest as Ebola progresses…

As Ebola progresses, as it looks like it surely will, (see HERE),  there will be events in its progression that increase fear and lead to regional civil unrest and potentially, widespread societal breakdown.

Here is some well thought out speculation of some of the trigger points to various outbreak events:


Event trigger…

Possible reaction of governments

Possible reaction of population 

First week of August 1. Confirmation that 72 year old woman at London airport died of Ebola [She in fact tested negative] Greater scrutiny/testing of passengers traveling from African nations with confirmed cases. Increased concern expressed by British media.  Panic among some segments of the British population
Second week of August 2.  Additional cases of Ebola confirmed among airplane passengers and among airport workers Cancel flights from African nations into London.  US may do the same. Broader panic in Great Britain.  Calls to quarantine the airport.
Third week of August 3. Confirmed cases beyond the London airport Government calls for people of London to remain in their homes.  US cancels flights from London. Panic buying of food and other essentials in London and surrounding areas.  US citizens increase alarm.
Third week of August 4. Spread through many more African nations Travel bans to and from most of Africa – if not the entire continent Civil unrest in many African nations; death toll increases exponentially; African commerce to other continents begins to be seriously  impacted
Fourth week of August 5. First confirmed cases originating in US .  See potential scenario HERE and HERE.   Many from infected countries cross our borders – see HERE. Flights greatly curtailed in the US to and from areas of infected population.  Calls for persons from infected nations to be quarantined. Segments of US population begin considering measures to take to shelter in place to minimize exposure
First week of September 6. Cases reported in multiple states Government invokes travel bans in areas of outbreaks.  Quarantine is established in several locations.  Hundreds of people feared to be infected are quarantined. Panic sets in among many.  Grocery stores in areas of outbreak are mobbed and depleted.
Second week in September 7. Dramatic increase in number of cases reported in US Triage centers open.  Marshall law considered in some areas.  Number of quarantine centers increase.  Restrictions on travel and deliveries begin to cripple commerce and our economy. Panic increases.  Civil unrest in most affected areas.  Food shortages result from controls on commerce restricting travel and deliveries.  See HERE about how civil unrest progresses.
Many people will self-quarantine to avoid other people.  Many will not report to work.
Third week of September 8.  Epidemic declared in the US National emergency declared.  Detention centers open.  President and military given extraordinary powers.  Increased travel restrictions. Commerce is crippled.  Civil unrest spreads.  Food shortages increase.  Desperation drives behaviors.
Fourth week of September 9.  Death toll in thousands and increasing exponentially Marshall law established in many locations.   Travel is virtually suspended. Societal breakdown begins.

While the above is admittedly wild speculation,  the potential is there for something along these lines to transpire.  An Ebola outbreak in the US is just one among many potential causes of societal breakdown and the need to anticipate likely consequences and prepare accordingly.  It just so happens we have this current event unfolding before our eyes at this moment.  Stay tuned…

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