It’s time for me to sort out a “where we’ve been”, a “where we are”, and a “where we will be” review of recent events related to COVID-19 (aka CCP virus, Wuhan flu).
My February 23, 2020 predictions are bulleted; the actual outcome is in bold type.
- When will this virus be declared a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO)? Prior to March 1, 2020. (90%)
WHO declared pandemic on March 11, weeks after most of the medical community believed appropriate. Most commentators including the US government believe the WHO delayed their declaration because of Chinese influence to allow the world wide spread to level the playing field for China.
- When will total confirmed US cases exceed 1,000? This is tricky because the US does not possess many reliable test kits. So not much testing can be done. It is certain that there will be many more infected people in the US than will be reported. More HERE. Prior to March 7. (70%)
The US exceeded 1,000 confirmed cases around March 13th. US testing had a slow start due to initial faulty tests. The true number of cases is not yet known despite massive testing. The number of confirmed (tested) US cases as of May 12 is 1,342,594. Deaths attributed in whole or in part to COVID-19 are 80,000. Assuming the number of cases is an accurate reflection of those infected, which it is not, the death rate is 6%. It is likely that those infected are at least double the confirmed/tested cases, most asymptomatic, which would lower the death rate to below 3%.
Go to this site for live, updated comparisons: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/
- When will the cases in the US warrant the first city to be under quarantine? Prior to March 15. (80%)
“Under quarantine” and “lockdown” are loosely used words that mean similar things. As well, there are many degrees of “lockdown.” Very little was done in the US to mandate either lockdown or quarantine. But the first date of some level of lockdown in US cities was around March 17th in San Francisco.
- When will the first hospital in the US be reported to be overrun by virus patients due to lack of hospital capacity? Prior to March 15. (90%)
No hospital I am aware of was “overrun.” There have been reports by liberal media of panicky and distraught nurses, but little in the way of anything that could be called “overrun.” So I definitely missed that call. Even the President was coerced by the governor of New York to provide extra ventilators and bed capacity. These were provided by the thousands, but none were needed.
- When will the outbreak be declared a “national emergency” in the US? Before April 1, 2020.
Trump declared a “national emergency” on March 13th.
- How will people in the US react to quarantine? In the larger cities, unlike as shown in China, there will be looting and riots, by April 1. (90%) There will not be anywhere near the degree of compliance to quarantine in the US as there was in China. US citizens are more likely to disobey and rebel in both non-violent and violent ways. (95%)
I was wrong on the expectation of “looting and rioting” by April 1. But it is true that there is not anywhere near the degree of enforcement of shut down orders suggestions as in China. It is likely that our exceedingly high rate of confirmed/tested COVID cases is as much a result of our light-handed and in most cases non-existent enforcement as it is due to massive testing. In areas where governors or mayors have enforced aspects of their declared shutdowns, there have been armed demonstrations and backlash reactions in the media. I’ll modify my prediction of violent confrontations. Expect violent clashes in several cities by July.
- China and nations of southeast Asia whose production and exports will be reduced by 70+% through at least Spring, manufacture the bulk of pharmaceuticals and consumer goods. Consequently there will be supply shortages of masks, other medical supplies and equipment, medical personnel, hospital beds, large varieties of consumer goods and components for other manufacturing in the US. Such shortages will become widespread before April 1 in many areas of the nation. (80%)
While there were shortages of masks and related gear and pharmaceuticals through mid-April, this problem appears to be resolved, with millions of each item produced and delivered weekly.
- When will we first observe a large number of people in shopping areas wear a medical or N95 mask? Prior to April 15. (80%)
I missed this one by a couple of weeks for my area. Most people in my low outbreak area were slow to adopt wearing of masks in public places. I didn’t notice more than half the people wearing masks in public until late April. However, in high outbreak areas, widespread mask wearing occurred prior to April 15th.
- When will a good part of the US population decide to “self-quarantine?” Prior to May 1. (80%)
This was about right. Most areas were in some degree of self-quarantine half way through April.
- The US (and world) economy will be hit hard. Many predict a worse hit than the “Great Recession of 2008”. (90%)
This is unfortunately the case. Many are calling the “cure” (shutdown) worse than the disease. Comparisons are now being made with the Great Depression of the ‘30’s not merely with the “great recession of 2008.” The bludgeoned economy will become the catalyst for social unrest. The US stock market gyrates wildly with every new bit of news about cures or lack thereof, about the curve being flattened versus a resurgence being likely. States, like Florida for example, have failed in providing timely unemployment benefits due to bureaucratic systems under-designed to accommodate such an unanticipated influx of unemployment assistance claims.
The Democrat Congress is now preparing another three trillion dollar pork relief package. No doubt many socialist projects will be funded, including millions for NPR, the arts, abortion groups, and others. And Trump will be forced to go along to avoid being the ogre. This total of six billion dollar plus addition to our national deficit will have as yet unknow but guaranteed unpleasant consequences for our nation’s future. Some predict a deflationary depression while others predict runaway inflation. Maybe both. First the deflationary depression, then by next year the beginning of runaway inflation.
We will see many more retail bankruptcies over the coming months. Many consumers have developed new online shopping habits that may continue. Meanwhile, brick and mortar retail establishments will have a more difficult time staying afloat. More shopping malls will fail as anchors evaporate. Conversion developers will transform those into mixed use office/retail centers. But with new office work-from-home habits established, many companies will find it appropriate to downsize their office space. So even office building occupancy may take a hit.
How quickly will our economy recover? Much more slowly than first hoped and predicted. All depends on two things: How quickly a treatment or preventative is widely available and when the public believes the virus is no longer a dire threat so they feel comfortable resuming normal work and spending. When will widespread “back to normal” celebrations be pronounced? Going out on a limb: Summer of 2021, but with greater than an 6% inflation rate (and climbing) in the process – if no war with China by then.
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