Covid-19 Update: Status of Predictions

I will update the predictions I made here last week.  But first, here are “lessons learned”, “hunches” and “two sides of the ‘hype’” concerning Covid-19.

First, lessons learned:

• This is not the time to be on cruise ships.  Even in the best of times they are floating petri dishes.  Now, unless you’re a gambler and the prize of a two week quarantine in your 8’ by 10’ cabin is to your liking, best to avoid.  HERE is the latest incident from Los Angeles.  But then again, worse has occurred in the past  among many cruise ships as described HERE.
• There are myriads of conspiracy theories ranging from Covid-19 being a Chinese biological attack, to it being a US CIA or deep state hatched plot to eliminate the old and infirm.  The problem is, with so many choices of sources for our “facts”, we tend to gravitate toward the facts we tend to agree with and ignore the rest.
• Personal sanitation like frequent hand washing, remaining in sanitary surroundings, and avoiding crowds and close contact with others, while sounding excessively simplistic, are the best ways to avoid this illness and any viral or bacteriological illness.

Hunches:

• The US CDC screwed up royally with their first batch of test kits.  Their first batch distributed to states in early February were defective.  The recipients were ordered not to use them.
• Florida has no useful test kits.  This is the reason why state officials have refused to release the number of people tested and the results.  This isn’t because of HIPPA.  It is because no one has been tested and there are no results.  But instead of embarrassing the Federal government regarding the CDC screwup (Florida does have a pro-Trump governor), Florida officials are taking the hit by being less than transparent, aka, withholding the fact of no test kits being available.
• Disneyworld in Orlando, and the many other amusement parks,  are land-based versions of cruise ships.  Upwards of half their crowds are comprised of foreigners [politically correct: “international community”] closely mingling, touching, eating, bath-rooming.  These parks remains a prolific viral transmission point until closed.
• Covid-19 may not be significantly less active in warmer weather.  This is evidenced by the fact that there are breakouts in several warm weather nations near the equator.
• The negative impacts on the world’s economy will equal or surpass the negative impacts of the virus itself on world’s human health.  This is becoming obvious with the stock market and promised supply chain shortages.

Two sides of the ‘hype’:

• One extreme - Doomsayers:  Oh my God, this is going to kill us all.  It will continue to mutate, we will never get a vaccine, all the officials are telling us lies, the deep state, CIA, Communist China, Jews, Blacks, Mexicans, White Supremacists [take your pick] are all out to get us.
• The other extreme – Oblivious:  “This is just like the normal seasonal flu”; “Nothing to worry about”; “This is all overblown hype”; “It’s all made up conspiracy BS.”
• In-between these two extremes:  The truth is somewhere between these two extremes.  The media was ignoring Covid-19 until a week or two ago.  Now they see it as a viewing/advertising money maker and will hype it for all it’s worth. The leftists/democrats will use the occasion to try to destroy Trump.  The most faithful Trump supporters will promote the idea that his low key approach is right on target.

Now on to my predictions from last week.  The probabilities of these predictions are carried over from last week and are indicated in parentheses (%%).  In several instances I have changed the probability as noted.

1. When will this virus be declared a “pandemic” by the World Health Organization (WHO)?  Prior to March 1, 2020. (90%)

This question should be modified to read “When will the world’s health care community consider Covid-19 a “pandemic?” 

It is now March 1 and the WHO has not yet declared a “pandemic” to the regret of many health experts who believe the declaration should have been made a couple weeks ago.  But the WHO has raised it’s threat level assessment to it’s highest level, a level few ever heard of, a couple days ago as described HERE.  And, for those of us wondering WHY WHO has not yet declared this pandemic a pandemic, HERE is an article describing the 425 billion reasons why they refuse to call the Covid-19 outbreak a “Pandemic”.

“It's becoming increasingly apparent why the World Health Organization (WHO) has had a difficult time calling Covid-19 outbreak a "pandemic," this is because it would cause both bonds to trigger, effectively wiping out bondholders.”  Zero Hedge

2. When will total confirmed US cases exceed 1,000?  This is tricky because the US does not possess many reliable test kits.  So not much testing can be done.  It is certain that there will be many more infected people in the US than will be reported.  More HERE.   Prior to March 7. (70%)

Yes, determining the number of Covid-19 cases in the US certainly is tricky when no reliable test kits are available and no, or very few, tests have been conducted.  California, one of three states reported to have any test kits, have only 400 or so kits for their 39.5 million residents.  The CDC reported earlier that test kits distributed to states in early February were defective/unreliable and should not be used. While only 20-some cases have been confirmed in the US thus far, we can be certain that many hundreds more undocumented cases are roaming the countryside and cities.  Just a month ago many in the US were critical of the Chinese for undercounting the infected.  Here we are in the same spot.  Once kits are distributed next week, expect to see the number of cases explode in the following week.  More on CDC missteps with their test kits HERE.  HERE is an article on the CDC’s apparent “don’t test – don’t tell” policy.

3. When will the cases in the US warrant the first city to be under quarantine?   Prior to March 15. (80%)

Defining terms, there is a difference between “quarantine” and “isolation.”  As I read recently, (source unknown)…

“They don't quarantine sick people. They quarantine well people, on the basis that they "might" become sick later. You're quarantined on the basis of being in proximity of infected people. They isolate sick people.

The Red Cross informs us further, "…both quarantine and isolation may be compelled on a mandatory basis through legal authority as well as conducted on a voluntary basis."

At this point, there are a number of self-quarantines in several cities, but not city-wide yet.  The cruise-ship passengers from Japan are under both mandatory quarantine and isolation, depending on whether they are suspect or infected.

4. When will the first hospital in the US be reported to be overrun by virus patients due to lack of hospital capacity? Prior to March 15. (90%); Reduce to 70%.

The objective of US health officials is to delay rapid spread of sickness to avoid overcrowding the hospital system.  The greatest fear is that hospitals could be overrun with Covid-19 patients, and those seriously injured in car accidents or who have other life-threatening conditions will not have access to needed hospital treatment.  Fortunately, of those infected, fewer than 10% require hospital-level treatment.  But that still could be a large number.

5. When will the outbreak be declared a “national emergency” in the US?  Before April 1, 2020. (90%); Reduce to 50%.

Secretary of Health and Human Services Azar declared a “Public Health Emergency” for United States due to Covid-19 on January 31st.  That is not the same as a “national emergency.”  HERE is a helpful article on the difference.  Given the low key vibe the President wants to attribute to this event, I wonder if a “National Emergency”, a more serious declaration, will ever be pronounced.  The state of Washington declared a “state of emergency” on Saturday after one death where the deceased’s source of the virus remains unknown. But they frequently make that declaration for snow storms, too.

6. How will people in the US react to quarantine?  In the larger cities, unlike as shown in China, there will be looting and riots, by April 1. (90%) 

There will not be anywhere near the degree of compliance to quarantine in the US as there was in China.  US citizens are more likely to disobey and rebel in both non-violent and violent ways. (95%)

Many in the medical field consider China’s “draconian” methodology to be the new gold standard for the suppression of epidemics and potential pandemics.  Such measures work  in a totalitarian, highly regimented nation where suppression and punishment keep people at heel, like dogs.  Would such measures be effective or tolerated in the US?  I doubt it.  Consequently our leaders have the option to be loose with their “enforcement” and allow a greater spread of the virus, or clamp down like China and brace for suppression and really bad PR.

7. China and nations of southeast Asia whose production and exports will be reduced by 70+% through at least Spring, manufacture the bulk of pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.  Consequently there will be supply shortages of masks, other medical supplies and equipment, medical personnel, hospital beds, large varieties of consumer goods and components for other manufacturing in the US.  Such shortages will become widespread before April 1 in many areas of the nation.  (80%); Increase this to 95%.

Shortages of some prescription meds are already being noted.  HERE is a Food and Drug Administration website where medicine shortages are listed.  Supply chain shortages will impact US manufacturers and retailers well into the summer. HERE is a website that discusses the extent to which our retail stores are likely to be impacted by April.

8. When will we first observe a large number of people in shopping areas wear a medical or N95 mask?  Prior to April 15. (80%)

Wearing of masks is likely already common near areas or cities where there are outbreaks, notably in California, Washington, and Oregon, although I haven’t seen this reported yet. Medical masks are usually used to keep potential infection in.  But they are marginally useful as a temporary measure for an hour or two if you have to go out among the herd, but not effective if moist from breath.  Their best use is twofold: To keep people at a distance from you because they will probably think YOU are infected and to keep your dirty mitts off your mouth, nose and eyes.  3M has committed to produce 35 million masks per month, primarily for health care professionals.

9. When will a good part of the US population decide to “self-quarantine?”  Prior to May 1. (80%)  Increase to 90%.

Some are doing this already in areas near confirmed outbreaks.  The numbers will dramatically increase in the coming weeks as more reliable test kits are used.  However, this won’t necessarily be an “all or nothing” exercise.  Many will gradually change their habits, initially avoiding the obvious transmission locations such as amusement parks, sports venues, auditoriums, even churches.  Retailers and restaurants will be the last places to be avoided, at least based on our habits.

10. The US  (and world) economy will be hit hard.  Many predict a worse hit than the “Great Recession of 2008”. (90%) Increase to 95+%.

This prediction is well on its way to confirmation.  As more people self-quarantine and reduce their normal shopping and entertainment, and as supply chain parts and products dry up from China, our economy will take a huge hit.  The stock market is currently in the process of anticipating this.

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My personal bottom line for my own actions in the coming days is this:

Given my understanding about the lack of testing thus far in the US due to the lack of reliable test kits, I am assuming that many more are infected than presently reported.  No one under these circumstances can be certain of the number or geographic spread and location of the Covid-19 outbreak.  Consequently, until testing becomes more widespread and reliable, I will curtail my involvement in group activities and other circumstances where contraction of the virus is likely.  As the President’s press conference yesterday (February 29th) stated, those who are healthy have little to worry about.  That also means that the elderly and those with existing health issues are more vulnerable to life-threatening consequences.  These facts inform my actions.