Potential short term options and outcomes in Israel/Iran conflict…

 A little brainstorming, or brain farting, depending on your perspective:

A lot of potential scenarios exist with regard to the current Israel/Iran war.  The mutually acknowledged objective of Israel's attack on Iran is the elimination of Iran's current nuclear weapons development – and to set back their bomb building timeline for many years.  Fordow’s elimination is the prize.  Can Israel eliminate Fordow without use of the US MOP?  Theoretically, yes.

From Copilot AI: 

The largest penetrating bomb in Israel’s known arsenal is the GBU-28, a U.S.-made, laser-guided “bunker buster” weighing around 5,000 pounds. It was originally developed during the Gulf War to destroy deeply buried Iraqi bunkers and has since become a key part of Israel’s strike capabilities.

The GBU-28 can penetrate up to 22 feet of reinforced concrete or over 160 feet of earth, making it highly effective against fortified underground targets. Israel acquired around 100 of these bombs starting in 2005, and they’ve reportedly been used in operations targeting tunnels and hardened facilities.

However, even the GBU-28 has its limits. For example, Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility—buried deep beneath a mountain—is considered too well-protected for the GBU-28 to destroy. That’s why Israel has reportedly sought access to the much larger GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP), a 30,000-pound U.S. bomb capable of reaching far deeper targets. But as of now, only the U.S. operates the aircraft capable of deploying it.

With enough GBU-28s dropped on Fordow, that site can be destroyed.  The number of these required to do the job is not publicly confirmed or many not even be known with certainty.  And the number of these bombs currently in Israel's possession is known only to Israel – and maybe the US.

But even dropping US MOPs will require several to complete the mission.

An ideal approach from the US perspective is to supply Israel with several dozen (or hundreds?)  additional GBU-28s for ISRAEL to drop on Fordow without overt US involvement.  Let Israel do the dropping.  This would avoid a lot of potential Iran blowback on US installations in the Middle East.

Alternatively, the US could bite the neighborly bullet and let our B-2’s take a few passes at Fordow.  One hour and done.

There will be consequences. Iran is likely to divert a few hundred of their remaining 1,200 missile stockpile on US positions elsewhere in the Middle East.  And Russia, who relies on Iran for a good chunk of their munitions' to continue their aspirations against Ukraine, will likely cause some trouble.

The best outcome is for Iran to come to their senses (from our perspective, not theirs) and agree to shut down their nuclear aspirations.  But the odds of their agreeing to do that in any non-deceptive way are slim to none.

The next few days will be, as they say, “veddy inn-terr-esss-ting.”

Editorial aside:  The MOP was used in Afghanistan.  I don't know how much that contributed to the overall mission...we left that theatre with our tail tucked.  Is the MOP now intended to be used only as an intimidating show piece, or are there actually good uses for it?  It seems to me that Fordow is an ideal use. But if we refrain from using it there because there might be "consequences", then it should be shuffled off to the bomb graveyard because it apparently has no use.