Israel/Iran Conflict: Unknown Unknowns

 Donald Rumsfeld, a Secretary of Defense of days of yore, talked about knowns, unknowns, and unknown unknowns.  I’ve puzzled over “unknown unknowns” and have concluded during my most recent puzzlings that unknown unknows are situations when you thought they were known but were dead, seriously, badly screwed up WRONG. Black swans come to mind.

There are a large number of unknowns and unknown unknowns in the Israel/Iran conflict now on the chess board.  Here is a list of a few I’ve read about and a few I’ve made up.  Consider which ones are fluff, critical, relevant, dangerous or deadly.

If Fordow is bombed by Israel: 

• Will Iran use that bombing as justification to actually build the bomb? They are threatening that now.  Unknown is do they already have the bomb; is their intent to build the bomb no matter what we do?  I say “likely” to both.
• Will that trigger intervention by China, Russia, or both? There are ongoing threats by these nations. If so, in what form, for how long and when?
• Will radiation be leaked and drift eastward into Afghanistan and worse, Pakistan?  What would the reaction of those nations and the world be?
• How effective would such bombing be?  How many of the smaller GB-28s in Israel's possession would be required to do the job?  Can the US provide more if needed?

If Fordow is bombed by the the US: 

• Would Iran use a portion of its remaining missile stockpile to strike US forces in surrounding nations?  What impact would they have?  I speculate “little” at this point of their diminished capacity and capability.
• Would the reaction of Russia and China be worse than if the bombing was conducted solely by Israel?
• Plus all of the previous list of questions.

Russia/China:

• To what extent will Russia or China come to Iran's assistance?
• What will be the trigger points?
• In what form would such assistance be?

Iranians in the US:

• How aware of Iranian sleeper cells are we?
• What kind of harm could they do?

To what extent can Iran be trusted in negotiations?  I believe “not at all”.

To what extent does Iran want to negotiate?  A lot but only as a delay tactic to reduce further attacks and to give more time to accomplish their nuclear objectives.  They are already using the potential attacks on remaining nuke sites as a form of blackmail to justify nuclear weapons development.

How many missiles does Iran have left?  And are they being resupplied by Iranian allies?

Will Iran attempt to block the straight of Hormuz?

• Conventional wisdom is that they will not because it would block their own oil exports.
• What would their means of blockade be?  Mines? Rocket attacks on shipping?
• How effective could such blockade be and how long might it last?

For how long can world opinion of Israel’s bombing of Iran be held at bay to the extent that Israel can complete its mission of destroying Iran’s nuclear infrastructure?

Is Iran’s nuclear infrastructure so decentralized and dispersed that it can be fairly quickly reconstituted?

Regime change.

• Is it possible?
• Is it desirable?
• To what extent would the population of Iran support change?
• Would replacement result in the same, less extreme, or more extreme anti-Israel policy?
• Is there legitimate concern that a power vacuum would be created as in Libya after Ghedaffi and the nation descends into chaos? 

How long will the current level of attacks between these two nations last?

• Days, weeks, months?
• Become perpetually sporadic as in the past?
• Can or will Iran reconstitute proxies to continue and perpetuate attacks against Israel?

Will this conflict spin out of control?

• If so, when?
• Is it reversible?
• How serious?
• Will it turn nuclear?

These are a few of the knowns, unknowns, and if wrong, the unknown unknowns.  I’m certain there are literally hundreds of others that flow from these questions plus others not even on the table.

What is your opinion about these?  Can you add a few more?