President B. H. Obama and the Iraqi government have assured Iraq is a lost cause for the western world. This article describes how the unmotivated Iraqi government is dropping the ball on the hand-off of the US counterinsurgency initiatives. With the inevitable withdrawal of US troops in the next 18 months to 2 years, this Iraqi government predisposition to revert to the past will spell perpetual conflict and tribal anarchy until the next dictator or Sharia-endowed leader rises up.
While I'm about predicting things in the middle east, here are four more predictions that will be like watching a slow motion train wreck over the next several years:
Afghanistan: Afghanistan has already been described as Obama's Vietnam. In two years, we will tire of that mire and decide there are other actions we can take to deceive ourselves into believing that we are being productive at achieving whatever objective we have over there. Within four years, we will be out of Afghanistan whether there is lasting reduction of Al-Qaeda influence or not.
Pakistan: A nuclear-armed nation on the brink of revolution. What to do. What to do. We won't do enough. We will not safeguard the nukes. We will not prevent a radical Islamic takeover. There is now "galloping Talibanization" occurring in Pakistan. Within two years, we will resign ourselves to a west-hating controlled Pakistan who will effectively use it's nuclear power to coerce western influence-reducing concessions out of us. Obama will do whatever it takes to minimize their hatred toward us. We can expect an increasing number of Kum-bay-Yah moments from B. Hussein O. in the middle east.
Iran: The US will be effective in preventing Isreal from destroying Iran's nuclear facilities. UPDATE: During todays' (Tuesday, May 18) meeting between Obama and Netanyahu, Obama effectively neutralized any Israelli action against Iran by guaranteeing another 8 months of talk with Iran. See here and here. Here is one example of Obama's arm twisting. If Obama simply wanted notice from Israel to ready or protect American troops in the area, he would have said this privately - as in "Top Secret". This public demand was a political move to further distance himself from Israel and further cozy up to Muslim nations. Netanyahu will become a paper tiger. Again, within two years, we will resign ourselves to being subject to an Islamic, nuclear-armed Iran who will effectively use it's nuclear power to coerce western influence-reducing consessions out of us.
Israel: If two out of three of these predictions materialize, Israel's existence is in doubt in 4 years. Islamic dominance in Europe and the US will accelerate.
I hope I am dead wrong on all of them.